Disaster looms in north, centre

• Cyclone Chedza won’t reach Malawi
• Weather forecast points to more floods

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 A latest weather forecast shows that rains will subside in the Southern Region, but will continue to be heavy in the North and Centre, triggering more floods and worsening the situation in already affected areas while opening the country to more destitution problems for citizens.

Meanwhile, cyclone Chedza, which was spotted some two days ago moving from Madagascar over Mauritius towards the African mainland along the latitudes of Malawi, will die naturally before it reaches the continent’s coastline.

Confirming both developments in an interview on Monday, Department of Meteorological Services and Climate Change head of public weather services, Elina Kululanga, said the information has already been communicated to the Department of Disaster Management Affairs (Dodma) for their planning.

She said: “Our forecast is that we are expecting heavy rains in the North and Centre, which will likely trigger more floods in flood-prone areas, but these rains will not come from cyclone Chedza as some people have been speculating.”

An article published at the weekend in a South African publication, Daily Maverick—which has since been widely quoted and circulated—warned that the situation in Malawi and Mozambique would deteriorate as a result of cyclone Chedza.

In the last fortnight, Malawi and Mozambique have been at the receiving end of Tropical Cyclone Bansi, which exacerbated seasonal rains in the two countries.

In Malawi, 176 people are confirmed dead, 121 000 (22 000 households) are displaced and 150 are still missing in Nsanje, according to the Office of the Vice-President. The disaster has affected 15 districts.

Said Kululanga: “Let me assure you that cyclone Chedza will remain a Madagascar issue. Calculating the distance where it is at the moment, we can speak conclusively that it will not reach Malawi because it is dissipating and will die out naturally.”

She explained that rains, which will continue to affect Malawi in the next two weeks, will be induced by the Congo Air Mass and the Tropical Inter-convergence Zone.

“These rains will be heavy in the North and Centre. They will be heavy because the imagery shows they will be gusty and will be accompanied by thunderstorms. But they will not be persistent,” she explained.

This situation, Kululanga said, will most likely trigger additional flooding in places that are already grappling with the aftermath of the floods from the persistent rains of the last two weeks.

“During the same period, rains in the Southern Region will be scattered,” she said.

As a result of the previous persistent rains, rivers burst their banks, houses and entire villages were swept away, and large chunks of land are still submerged, some in under three metres of water.

Government says it needs over K5 billion (about $10m) to provide relief and rehabilitation to those affected by the disaster.