Parties dismiss EIU 2019 poll forecast

Political parties and analysts have given mixed reactions to a London-based Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) forecast which suggests that President Peter Mutharika would excel in the 2019 presidential election.

Main opposition Malawi Congress Party (MCP) and former governing People’s Party (PP) have dismissed the report, saying the forecast cannot be trusted as it is based on assumptions.

On the other hand, political analysts have said it is important for all political parties to use results of such reports seriously for their own good.

The EIU of The Economists—in its 2017 first quarter outlook for Malawi generated on March 30 2017—says it expects Mutharika and his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to remain in power throughout the forecast period (2017-2021), securing re-election in the 2019 elections as his rivals are too divided to mount an effective challenge.

The report has shrugged off MCP’s capacity to pose a serious electoral threat, saying divisions within the party will impede its ability to do so. It also says PP’s popularity will continue to be dented by allegations of corruption.

In September, internal wrangles rocked MCP when the party expelled 13 members, including Salima Central member of Parliament (MP) Felix Jumbe whereas PP continues to be linked to the plunder of government resources at Capital Hill, popularly known as Cashgate.

“The next legislative and presidential elections are due in 2019. The government has outlined plans to review the electoral laws prior to these polls, amid calls from civil society to reform the first-past-the-post system.

“However, given the slow pace of legislative reform in Malawi and the fact that the main parties benefit from the status quo, it seems unlikely that substantial changes will be made to the electoral system prior to 2019.

“Mr. Mutharika has announced his intention to stand for re-election and, since regional affiliations ultimately determine the outcome of Malawian polls, the incumbent’s firm support base in the most populous Southern Region will give him an edge in both party nominations and at the polls,” reads the country report for Malawi in part.

However, reacting to the outlook, MCP deputy secretary general Eisenhower Mkaka said it is interesting that the report follows another survey which indicated that Mutharika is the least trusted politician at 41 percent whereas ward councillors are at 48 percent and MPs are at 44 percent.

He said to MCP, the timing of the report is an attempt to clear that image.

Mkaka also said people should not forget that this is the same organisation that prior to the 2014 Tripartite Elections, predicted victory for Joyce Banda but she ended up losing the election.

“So, I do not think that as a party we will be moved by their report. We are in the rebuilding process and we are not in any way moved by these findings. The issues about us being too divided are being said on an assumption that we will go on like this as a party and we are not going to have a convention that will unite us,” he said in a telephone interview yesterday.

PP acting president Uladi Mussa said his party does not believe in the results because he does not see any reason why today, especially this year, a research unit can forecast that DPP will win the 2019 elections.

Commenting on the outlook, Chancellor College political analyst Mustapha Hussein said he is of the view that now is too early to say Mutharika would win in 2019. He said unlike few years ago, there is a degree of disappointment in Malawians based on the economic situation facing the country.

Said Hussein: “The truth that is there is that the competitors seem to be not very united and that should there be polls, the electorate would be divided.”

On his part, another Chancellor College political analyst Happy Kayuni, while not stating his take on the forecast, said there is need for political parties to learn how to use findings of researches, surveys and opinion polls to their advantage instead of just rejoicing when they are in their favour or dismissing it if they are not in their favour.

Efforts to get DPP’s position were futile as spokesperson Francis Kasaila’s phone was out of reach.