Political and governance analysts have tipped United Democratic Front (UDF) as the must-have partner for both governing Malawi Congress Party (MCP) and opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) ahead of the 2025 General Elections.
The UDF, which started holding its elective convention in Blantyre yesterday, saw representatives of opposition parties such as DPP, UTM Party, Alliance for Democracy (Aford), People’s Party (PP) and People’s Transformation Party (Petra) in attendance.
Besides the above, National Democratic Party (NDP), People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Liberation for Economic Freedom Party also had senior members present.
Traditionally, MCP has garnered strong support in the Central Region and DPP in the South, but political analysts believe the UDF, whose support base is concentrated in the Eastern Region, would easily attract the attention of the two parties for an electoral alliance in the face of the 50-percent-plus-one law in deciding the presidential election winner.
In an interview yesterday, Gift Sambo, a legislative, electoral politics and public policy expert who teaches at the University of Malawi (Unima), said the capacity of UDF should not be underestimated as a kingmaker.
He said: “The UDF has structures, its brand and people are able to relate with it as opposed to these other newly established parties. In fact, both DPP and MCP are looking forward to working with UDF in this electoral contest.
“No one can ignore the power of UDF. With the two-round presidential election system, and in an event that no party goes through the first time, the second round will be crucial and UDF can be kingmaker.”
According to Sambo, there are already divisions in other parties such as UTM, on which party between DPP and MCP to align with, while Aford and PP will only be trying to gauge which party may carry the day next year.
“Minus the UDF which may be approached by either DPP or MCP, and UTM which still has issues until its convention, the other parties are just trying to gauge the political environment on where to go,” he said.
But Ernest Thindwa, an expert in electoral and identity politics, said refusal by some UDF gurus to have the MCP represented at its convention was not a strategic decision, but an internally populist stance.
He said the decision robs UDF of its bargaining potential in an electoral terrain where alliances will become a key feature given the 50-percent-plus one vote requirement to claim victory in the presidential race.
Said Thindwa: “Given current party configuration and distribution of electoral appeal, electoral alliances will revolve around two competing axis with MCP and DPP emerging as fulcrums for each.
Governance pundit George Chaima argued that UDF’s challenge has been inconsistency in its leadership and hoped that the return of Atupele Muluzi will help rebrand the party’s image and make it grow bigger and greater again.
“UDF will take the centre stage for scramble. If anything, UDF has stronger magnetic pull for any alliance partner between MCP and DPP,” he said.
On the opposition parties seemingly coming together, especially during conventions, another analyst Wonderful Mkhutche said the parties lack proper leadership and direction, a situation that could see them ending up in no alliance.
MCP spokesperson Jessie Kabwila in an interview yesterday said they can only comment on the opposition bloc once it is formed and that, as the party in power, they are busy with finding solutions to the plight of Malawians.
“We were informed that violence was being planned,” she said.
In 1994, UDF became the first political party to form government after Malawi returned to multiparty democracy through the June 14 1993 National Referendum.
However, the party’s popularity or strength in Parliament has been on the decline, especially post the 2004 General Elections after Bingu wa Mutharika ditched the party that sponsored his presidential ticket to form DPP.
During the first post-independence multiparty elections in 1994, UDF secured 85 seats out of 177 while in 1999 it won 91 out of 193 seats and in 2004, UDF scooped 49 seats before further declining to 16 in 2009, then 14 in 2014 and 10 in 2019.
