Network forecasts further drop in crop output

Famine Early Warning Systems Network (Fewsnet) has forecast that the 2021/22 national crop production will be 10 to 25 percent below average and that the largest deficits are expected in the Southern Region.

In its February to September 2022 Malawi Food Security Outlook report, Fewsnet has attributed the projected drop to crop damage caused by floods induced by Tropical Storm Ana in January 2022 and delayed onset of the rains.

The Fewsnet report comes barely three weeks after the Ministry of Agriculture’s first round of crop estimates projected a 14 percent drop in maize production for the 2021/22 season.

Reads part of Fewsnet’s report: “In Southern [Region of] Malawi, damage from Tropical Storm Ana in January 2022 has further reduced prospects for the 2021/22 crop production.

“Flooding from [Tropical Storm] Ana caused the loss of lives, damaged cropland and infrastructure, destroyed property and resulted in livestock deaths.”

Tropical Storm Ana impacted between 10 to 52 percent of the total district populations in affected areas the report said.

Fewsnet’s report also estimates that 77 532 hectares of crops, including maize, groundnuts, soya beans, tobacco, rice and cotton were either being submerged or completely washed away in districts of Phalombe, Mulanje, Mangochi, Balaka, Chikwawa and Nsanje.

The report also points out that farmers experienced their lowest access to subsidised inputs in two decades from both governments’ Affordable Inputs Programme (AIP) and on the commercial market which will also affect output.

Reacting to the projections in an interview yesterday, Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources (Luanar) agriculture economist Horace Phiri described the estimates as a cause of concern.

He said: “The Fewsnet estimates are concerning because going by last year’s estimates, consumption was about 3.5 million tonnes [MT] or 77 percent of the total population.”

In a separate interview, agriculture policy expert Tamani Nkhono-Mvula said projections by Fewsnet are within what would be realistic. He observed that the Ministry of Agriculture’s first round of crop estimates did not include Tropical Storm Ana effects.

Ministry of Agriculture spokesperson Gracian Lungu said government will intensify irrigation farming and implementing measures to reduce post-harvest losses.

In the 2020/21 agriculture season final crop estimates, maize production was estimated at 4 581 524 metric tonnes (MT) while for the 2019/20, maize production was estimated at 3 785 712MT.