Queries over NRB register
Data from the National Registration Bureau (NRB) shows that the Central Region has registered a 12 percent increase over the projected number of people for the national identity cards (IDs), a prerequisite for voter registration.
NRB benchmarked its target on National Statistical Office (NSO) population projections, but has ended up registering more in most parts of the country, with the Centre and South flying high.
On the other hand, the North has registered less than the projected population with Mzimba, the country’s biggest district by size, the worst hit alongside Mangochi, Machinga and Ntcheu.
The Nation analysis shows that the Central Region has enjoyed a significant increase of over half a million after NRB registered 5 414 798 against NSO’s projection of 4 823 895, a difference of 590 903 or 12.2 percent increase.
In the South, NSO projected 4 942 308, but NRB captured 5 296 399, a difference is 354,091 or 7.1 percent increase while the North has a 0.6 percent deficit to match the projection. NSO estimated 1 585 728, but those in NRB register are 1 576 152, an under-registration of 9 576.
The findings are based on The Nation analysis which focused on NSO projections and what NRB has registered from 2016 to Agust 22 2024. NRB shared its data during a press briefing on August 22 2024 in Lilongwe.
The briefing came a day after delegates to the National Elections Consultative Forum (Necof), a platform for electoral stakeholders meeting in Lilongwe quizzed NRB on its preparedness to partner Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) in voter registration.
Among the cities, Lilongwe has registered 19 percent more than NSO projections with Blantyre standing at 18 percent against Zomba’s six percent. Lilongwe registered 2 014 111 against 1 691 927 while Blantyre has 921 486 against a projection of 780 666. For Zomba, the projection was 535,764 but registered 572,502.
Out of the 28 districts, 15 have registered increases above 10 percent over NSO projections with seven in the South, five from the Centre and three from the North.
Likoma and Nsanje have the highest increases of 26 percent and 24 percent, respectively while Lilongwe, Mchinji, Blantyre, Neno, Nkhotakota and Dedza come second with above 15 percent.
A statistician in the public service, who did not want to be named, said any significant difference between projections and actuals ought to have an explanation.
Said the statistician: “I have looked at the figures, these are projections, meaning NRB used them as targets. It does not mean that they should have captured exactly the same. But still, the figures ought to have been within a reasonable range.
“In most districts the difference is above 10 percent. It is quite significant to warrant questions. This must be explained. What are the factors?”
The Nation presented its calculations to NRB which justified the variations to a number of factors, including logistics and migration.
NRB head of identity management Mbawaka Mwakhwawa said the bureau is aware of the variations and is scheduled to meet NSO on September 17 2024 “to compare the data and jointly explain the variations”.
He said the underperformance in the North is due to Mzimba which had not adequately registered its population compared to the rest of the districts.
“This is due to terrain and long distances to reach to registration centres. However, mop-up registration was initiated to cover such gap. NRB is hopeful that at the expiry of mop-up registration the situation will not be the same,” said Mwakhwawa.
Pressed to explain how they managed to go above target in almost 90 percent of the districts, he backed NRB figures, saying civil registration data is considered more reliable than census data.
In a telephone interview yesterday, Leader of Opposition in Parliament George Chaponda said the NRB figures raise questions and lend weight to calls to have other forms of identification for voter registration other than the national ID.
“NRB does not have capacity and we have evidence. In most areas you have many people going for registration only to come back because of malfunctioning equipment,” he said. “How come the Central Region is doing better in registration than the South, East and North? Someone can use this to their advantage.”
People’s Party spokesperson Ackson Kalaile Banda said they expect NRB to expedite the process in the areas facing logistical challenges to ensure no one is left out.
On his part, UTM Party spokesperson Felix Njawala said they are not confident and comfortable with the whole arrangement of having the national ID as the sole identity for voter registration.
He said: “The process is compromised. These guys lack capacity, and with the little capacity, the process is politicised.”
Malawi Congress Party, United Democratic Front and Alliance for Democracy were yet to respond to The Nation questionnaires on their reactions.
Section 4 (12) of the Presidential, Parliamentary and Local Government Elections Act prescribes the national ID as the sole form of identification for voter registration.
