Chakwera, SKC’s road to 2025

With each passing day, as the September 16 2025 General Elections draw near, cracks appear to be widening in the governing Tonse Alliance following President Lazarus Chakwera’s appetite for re-election.

Last week, the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) leader declared that he will seek re-election.

This brings into question Vice-President Saulos Chilima’s indications that the Tonse deal requires the President to pave the way for him in the forthcoming poll.

They signed the agreement at the Kamuzu Institute for Youth in March 2020, three months before Chakwera unseated Peter Mutharika in a court-ordered fresh election, remains under wraps.

Despite this, Malawians are eager to know its contents, including who will lead the Tonse Alliance in 2025 following Chilima’s proclamations that the pair is supposed to rotate.

MCP has vehemently denied being party to the purported agreement, but UTM Party has maintained that 2025 is Chilima’s turn.

Amid this political intrigue, MCP national executive committee’s backing for Chakwera to return to the ballot in the upcoming election continues to fuel discontent among its political bedfellows in UTM Party.

Supporters of the two topmost parties in the troubled alliance have engaged in a war of words and fistfights during public events attended by their leaders.

Chakwera’s declaration that he will contest has since brought to the limelight the relationship he has with his second-in-command amid the purported agreement.

With the political temperature slowly rising, Malawians are left wondering: Are the two men at the helm of the country friends or foes?

Recently, the pair stood side by side during public gatherings.

Political Science Association spokesperson Mavuto Bamusi argues that Chilima’s appearance at presidential functions could be “only a face saver and a publicity stunt”.

He shares the growing suspicion that all is not well between Chakwera and Chilima.

For Bamusi, Chakwera’s interest to retain the presidency next year confirms “the total breakdown” in the relationship between the top two.

He states: “The so-called agreement to alternate the presidential office between Chakwera and Chilima was dead on arrival.

“The power imbalance between MCP and UTM Party means that Chakwera would unleash his party machinery to bar Chilima from being the presidential candidate.”

Bamusi faults MCP for engaging in “political cheating” by ignoring the Tonse Alliance terms and conditions.

“UTM Party and Chilima have been shortchanged from Chakwera’s political deceit,” he says.

The controversy marks a new chapter in what fallen vice-president Justin Malewezi termed “the curse of vice-presidents”.

Since the fall of the country’s founding president Hastings Kamuzu Banda and his one-party system, vice-presidents have endured troubled ties with presidents and no pair has succeeded each other.

Bamusi says it is nearly impossible and inconceivable that Chakwera will hand over power to Chilima, as the latter has purported since their joint campaign in 2020.

He says the sticky handover gets trickier with the lack of relevant laws that govern political alliances.

No electoral law recognises politicians’ pacts to win polls, said the Malawi Electoral Commission legal adviser.

To Bamusi, this means Chilima’s presidential ambitions are up in smoke and UTM can only get weaker on the road to 2025.

But UTM spokesperson Felix Njawala has constantly told journalists that the party has its own strategy ahead of the 2025 elections.

In August 2020, Chakwera told Zodiak Broadcasting Station that his relationship with Chilima would not at any point be complicated as both were committed to rebuilding the country.

The President was responding to the persisting rivalry at the helm which has persisted since 1994 when Malawi adopted the current Constitution which created the Office of the Vice-President.

However, the relationship between the pair has often been strained, with vice-presidents either sacked or forced to quit governing parties in the countdown to elections.

Chakwera, fwho quit the pulpit where he served asa Malawi assemblies of god president in 2013 to join frontline politics, said the debate over his candidacy in the 2025 elections would be tackled “when we get to that bridge”.

That was two months after defeating Mutharika in the court-sanctioned election on June 23 2020.

During his inauguration, Chakwera saluted Chilima for helping him become Africa’s first opposition leader to defeat a sitting president in a court-ordered election.

Governance commentator Undule Mwakasungula says it is important that both Chakwera and Chilima prioritise the interests of Malawians over their political ambitions in 2025.

“Regardless of any prior agreement, their primary responsibility is to serve the electorate that put them in office. As leaders, they must demonstrate unity and a commitment to their collective mandate, ensuring that governance and development remain at the forefront.

“Political stability and effective governance are crucial, especially in times when public confidence in leadership is essential,” he says.

Mwakasungula says the secret agreement between Chakwera and Chilima lacks legal grounding.

He states: “Chakwera retains the right to seek a second term, as he has already said so. Our democratic framework allows any first sitting president to run for re-election provided they adhere to constitutional rules.”

The Constitution prescribes a maximum of two five-year terms for the President.

Mwakasungula says the “strategically flawed Tonse agreement” should have been aligned with the Constitution to give Chakwera two terms before Chilima takes over in 2030.

To the governance commentator, continuity in leadership is crucial for long-term policy reforms.

Following Chakwera’s declaration to contest again, Mwakasungula says the Vice-President should consider renegotiating the succession deal with MCP or running independently under his UTM Party.

He suggests that Chilima may also consider apologising to his mentor-turned-foe Mutharika of the Democratic Progressive Party “to bolster his political relevance”.

However, political analyst Wonderful Mkhutche says Chilima is caught between a rock and a hard place.

He says: “The two leaders seem to be on good terms because the Vice-President does not want to once again turn his back on his boss and go for the presidency.

“It seems he is leaving it to time to be the best judge, and he is also between a rock and a hard place. He has nowhere to go, so he only has time to play his role.”

Mkhutche says it is an open secret that MCP is fronting Chakwera ahead of the 2025 elections.

“That seems to be the final decision and there is no possibility of the President handing over leadership to Chilima,” he says.

With the 2025 elections fast approaching, all eyes are on the pair.

Will they put aside their personal ambitions and work together for the good of the nation.

Only time will tell.