El Nino drought could threaten growth—Ifpri

 The International Food Policy Institute (Ifpri) has cautioned that the anticipated decline in maize output caused by the onset of El Nino winds could reduce gross domestic product (GDP) growth by 4.4 percent.

In its policy note titled Mitigating the Impact of El Nino in Malawi’ the institute said the dry seasons that typically follow El Nino can reduce the total maize output by 25 percent from the 3.4 million tonnes (MT) produced in a year to 2.5 million MT.

The policy note observes that climate phenomenoncould cause a deficit of about 25 percent of the national maize requirement, creating a food shortage that would plunge millions of people into food insecurity, requiring humanitarian assistance from the government.

Reads the policy note in part: “The consequences of such production shock would be far-reaching considering the centrality of maize to Malawian diets and economy.

“Our modelling work suggests that a 22.5 percent decline in total maize production would reduce Malawi’s GDP by 4.4 percent in 2024.”

To mitigate the impact, the Ifpri has urged farmers to intercrop maize with drought-resistant crops, use early maturing seeds and incorporate soil moisture and fertiliser management strategies to improve their resilience to droughts.

The report reads: “However, they will only improve the situation if food is available for purchase, that is if Malawi grows or imports enough food to satisfy its domestic consumption needs.

“Without sufficient food in the market, cash transfers will only push prices up, as consumers compete to purchase a scarce good.”

The remarks come after Minister of Finance and Economic Affairs Simplex Chithyola Banda announced that government would increase its social protection measures to cushion vulnerable Malawians from the side-effects of the 44 percent kwacha devaluation.

Reacting to the development, Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources agricultural economist Horace Phiri said the social cash transfers can work next year if they are complemented by other mitigating strategies.

“In the event that there is lower output next year, the government can import from neighbouring countries to ensure that there is food in the market to mitigate the inflationary pressures,” he said.

The International Monetary Fund said in its July 2017 issue of the Malawi country report that the El Niño-induced drought in 2016, the year referenced in the Ifpri policy note as one of the worst in Malawi’s history, reduced maize production by 42 percent and placed an estimated 6.7 million people at risk of food insecurity.