Opinion polls draw mixed reactions

Electoral stakeholders yesterday reacted with suspicion to opinion polls hinting that incumbent President Joyce Banda would win the May 20 Tripartite Elections with a large majority.

According to the latest opinion poll conducted by Research Tech Consultants, Banda, who is the torch-bearer for People’s Party (PP) topped the poll with 42 percent followed by Malawi Congress Party (MCP) candidate Lazarus Chakwera at 23 percent then Peter Mutharika of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) with 22 percent and Atupele Muluzi of United Democratic Front (UDF) received favour from 10 percent of the 3 883 respondents.

An earlier prediction from the London-based Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) and an opinion poll conducted by online news outlet Nyasa Times also tipped Banda to win with a small lead.

While conceding that other polls have given Chakwera victory, MCP spokesperson Jessie Kabwila said opinion polls and predictions by institutions such as Research Tech Consultants which gave Banda a 42 percent preference lacked credibility.

Said Kabwila: “Malawians have always been clear on what they want and they are tired of leadership that has no vision. [Malawians] don’t like Cashgate. It is unfortunate that this poll makes a mockery of the Malawi voter, who is known for punishing those who take advantage of them.”

She said it was incumbent on governance, education and non-governmental institutions such as Afrobarometer to provide credible opinion polls or surveys that do not have the potential to create or increase voter apathy.

DPP, which in the 2009 elections found favour in opinion polls which gave the then incumbent president the late Bingu wa Mutharika an 83 percent lead, yesterday was hesitant to comment on the matter with spokesperson Nicholas Dausi saying he needed to consult widely.

But Dr Jimmy Namangale, associate professor in statistics and senior lecturer in mathematics at the University of Malawi’s Chancellor College in Zomba, said while he could not comment on the surveys cited without analysing the methodology, political dynamics in the country make it difficult to discern opinion in elections.

He said: “In Malawi, [political] parties have strongholds which are clear. There are few districts where candidates face tough competition and in the past elections these have been Salima and Nkhotakota where no party wins with a large margin.”

But Namangale said opinion polls had the potential to psychologically affect voters negatively as well as positively as they could turn out in large numbers to ensure the survey does not come to pass.

On the other hand, political analyst Dr Mustafa Hussein said if conducted using scientific methods, opinion polls could give a true reflection even when repeated by those holding dissenting views as the opposition have done.

He said: “But politics are dynamic, things can change anytime and this is what could prevent people from becoming apathetic. Such surveys should also motivate people to go and vote.”

Adding his voice to the debate, Malawi Electoral Support Network (Mesn) executive director Steven Duwa said: “In the case of the opinion polls done so far here in Malawi for the tripartite elections, my impression is that they are bogus and wholly manipulated by those favoured in the opinion polls. Actually,  [opinion polls] are not worth publishing.”

Duwa said “surveys perceived to be bogus” and widely circulated can confuse voters who have the passion to see their preferred candidate win.

“In the same vein, if the survey favours a particular candidate, it makes the supporters of the candidate to be confident of victory. The danger comes when this candidate fails to win after [official] results have been announced,” he said.

UDF Secretary General Kandi Padambo said: “We have never heard of them [Research Tech Consultants] as a research institution and we find it difficult to accept the results of their survey. What they are saying doesn’t seem to tally with what is on the ground.”

PP has responded ecstatically to the polls, including the latest one, saying it should have come even earlier because information the party had gathered on the ground indicated that Banda would win the May 20 presidential election with a large margin.

Said PP deputy spokesperson Ken Msonda: “People appreciate the President’s achievements of the past two years. They know where they are coming from and they have full hope that things will change even more.”

Research Tech Consultants lead consultant Thomas Odala yesterday maintained that his institution was professional and had conducted similar surveys in other countries in the run up to elections.

When queried on the rationale of using the 2008 Population and Housing Census in identifying a sample, Odala said: “We couldn’t include everyone, but we found that out of the 3 883 sample, the lion’s share which was 1 609, would vote for Joyce Banda.”

Odala could also not sufficiently respond on whether their survey took into account the different voting trends of those aged above 30, voters in their 20s and new voters who have just turned 18, saying the survey sampled those aged 18 and above.

Research Tech Consultants says it has offices in Lilongwe as well as India and is currently evaluating upcoming elections in South Africa, India, Malawi and Mozambique.