Poll tips JB to win vote

Incumbent President Joyce Banda, who is leading People’s Party (PP) in the May 20 Tripartite Elections, has been tipped to win the forthcoming presidential elections, according to a latest opinion poll conducted by Research Tech Consultants.

According to the poll, the President commands a double-digit lead of 19 percentage points against her closest rival Malawi Congress Party’s (MCP) Lazarus Chakwera.

Banda is also 20 points ahead of Democratic Progress Party (DPP) candidate Peter Mutharika.

The poll found that Banda was preferred by 1 609 respondents, representing 42 percent of the sample trailed by Chakwera with 23 percent, then Mutharika at 22 percent and Atupele at 10 percent of the national sample while “other presidential candidates” got 172 respondents or four percent.

The poll has an overall statistical margin of error of plus/minus 3.6 percent, according to a statement from the Ministry of Information and Civic Education.

Research Tech Consultants, which has offices in Lilongwe as well as India and is currently evaluating upcoming elections in South Africa, India, Malawi and Mozambique, said Banda’s team only needs to do more to improve the PP brand and track record to sustain its momentum three weeks before votes are cast.

Conducted nationwide, the survey says many eligible voters believe Banda would win the polls because she has ended fuel shortages, managed the foreign exchange lean period with some success, reduced power blackouts and increased access to electricity among rural people as well as the prevailing good tobacco prices at the auction floors.

The survey’s lead consultant, Thomas Odala, said a sample size of 3 883 respondents was used in the poll.

He said the sample was assigned to the regions and districts based on the population of the 2008 Population and Housing Census.

Reads in part Research Tech’s findings: “In the Southern Region, out of 1 750 respondents in 15 districts [after Blantyre and Zomba were split into city and rural respectively], 805 respondents said they would vote for Dr Joyce Banda, representing 46 percent; followed by Professor Arthur Peter Mutharika [DPP] with 577 respondents, representing 33 percent; Austin Atupele Muluzi [United Democratic Front (UDF)] with 262 respondents, representing 15 percent then Dr Lazarus Chakwera [Malawi Congress Party (MCP)] with 70 respondents, representing four percent.”

Odala said in the Central Region (where the number of sampled districts was also put at 10 after Lilongwe was split into urban and rural), Chakwera has a 42 percent lead followed by Banda at 37 percent whereas Mutharika comes third with 14 percent and Atupele with six percent.

In the Northern Region, according to Odala, Banda led with 41 percent, leaving 21 percent of the respondents saying they will vote for other presidential candidates and 19 percent indicating preference for Chakwera.

“On the other hand, except for Karonga and Chitipa which seem to have a heart for DPP, the performance of DPP is rather weak in the [Northern] region as reflected in [Mutharika] getting 14 percent [of the vote]. Austin Atupele Muluzi comes in fifth in the region at five percent,” he said.

Odala said it is important to note that Northern Region voters have taken a wait-and-see attitude and the region has many undecided voters; hence, any party can take advantage of that situation to woo the voters.

Constitution law expert Edge Kanyongolo, who is associate professor of law at the University of Malawi’s Chancellor College, said it is difficult to comment on opinion polls unless one is informed on the precise methodology used.

Earlier this year, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) based in London also tipped Banda to win the presidential race on the back of her incumbency status, albeit with a narrow margin.

At the weekend, Al Jazeera also published an opinion poll that hinted at a Banda victory in an election analysts have rated to be the most closely fought in Malawi.