Results of an Institute of Public Opinion and Research (Ipor) pre-election survey have shown that President Lazarus Chakwera has enjoyed a post-presidential nomination bounce ahead of the September 16 General Election.
The findings presented yesterday indicated that President Chakwera of Malawi Congress Party (MCP) gained five percentage points on former president Peter Mutharika, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) torchbearer who the poll indicates has lost two percentage points from the previous survey results.
And so far, it is becoming increasingly clear that none of the presidential candidates will secure an outright 50 percent-plus-one majority, setting the stage for a second round presidential vote.
Presenting the findings in Blantyre yesterday, Ipor director of training and programmes Professor Michael Chasukwa said the survey was conducted between August 14 and 27 2025 and found that Mutharika would secure 41 percent of votes if elections were held then while Chakwera came second with 31 percent of votes.
UTM Party presidential candidate Dalitso Kabambe came third with six percent followed by Atupele Muluzi of United Democratic Front (UDF) with three percent. Former president Joyce Banda of People’s Party (PP) would secure two percent while the remaining 12 presidential candidates shared one percent of the votes.
The poll found that 11 percent of those surveyed remain undecided against 12 percent in the last study conducted in July this year.
In the first survey Ipor conducted in July Mutharika got 43 percent while Chakwera had 26 percent and Kabambe five percent.
In terms of recognition by the voters, the survey found that Chakwera emerged the most recognised presidential candidate while Mutharika’s running mate Jane Ansah, a former Malawi Electoral Commission chairperson and retired Justice of Appeal, is the most recognised running mate.
Said Chasukwa: “However, despite being the most recognised running mate, the survey found that Ansah attracts more divided opinions and comparatively lower support for her ticket.
“By contrast, Vitumbiko Mumba [MCP] and Matthews Mtumbuka [UTM] both enjoy stronger positive perceptions and greater influence on potential voter support despite being less widely known.”
The survey also found that there are several factors that influence voters’ choice of presidential candidate.
Topping the list of factors is commitment to a corruption free government with 51 percent rating, manifesto at 40 percent, candidate’s party at 33 percent, choice of running mate 30 percent, family loyalty 23 percent, candidate’s region of origin 22 percent, candidate’s ethnicity 19 percent, handouts and candidate’s religion 17 percent each and intimidation by political party operatives got six percent.
Prior to the release of the findings, debate ensued on the funding of the surveys. MCP secretary general Richard Chimwendo Banda accused DPP of sponsoring “fake opinion polls” to manipulate voters while DPP spokesperson Shadric Namalomba said MCP was a “crybaby”.
Yesterday, Chasukwa could not disclose the identity of the financiers and the total amount spent on the national survey, saying: “But I can challenge that no political party here would accuse Ipor that they gave us any penny to conduct these surveys.”
The findings have since drawn mixed reactions from political parties.
DPP assistant administrative secretary Ishmael Jones Milanzi said they were happy that Mutharika was still the frontrunner.
However, he pointed out that the figures did not fully represent the party’s current standing, saying the survey was conducted before Mutharika began his campaign trail.
In a separate interview, MCP deputy secretary general Gerald Kazembe described the survey findings as a “hit job”, saying MCP has evidence that the surveys were sponsored by DPP. However, he could not produce the said evidence.
He said: “We dismiss the said poll as a paid political hit job. It is a nonsensical poll orchestrated by the DPP to create a certain perception of political relevance. It is a fake poll and should be ignored. Our own internal survey that was released last week shows the DPP polling at a meagre 21 percent and MCP at 53 percent.”
Commenting on the survey amid allegations that the United Kingdom also funded the survey, British Acting High Commissioner Rebecca Fabrizi said as a reliable partner and friend of Malawi, London supports the country’s democracy and seeks to contribute to a peaceful and credible election.
She said: “We support the right of Malawians to vote and shape their own future. The choice of Malawi’s future leadership rests solely with its people. Malawians are rightly proud of the country’s track record of peace and democracy.”
