Our analysis from unofficial results in 223 out of 229 constituencies shows that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is poised to amass 81 seats in the National Assembly, and will be trailed by independent candidates at 69.
The Malawi Congress Party (MCP) is likely to be third, with our analysis showing that the party may get 52 seats, UTM Party has eight seats, while Alliance for Democracy (Aford) and People’s Party (PP) are likely to secure three seats each.
On the other hand, the United Democratic Front (UDF) has four seats in its sight, while Freedom Party (FP), National Development Party (NDP) and People’s Development Party (PDP) have one each.
On regional setup, the DPP has amassed seven seats in the North, 12 in the Centre, 37 in the South and 25 in the Eastern region, while MCP has also received seven in the North, 43 in the Centre, and one each in the Southern and Eastern regions.
Meanwhile, governance experts say this will strengthen legislative oversight but test the new administration’s ability to pass laws.
Civil Society Elections Integrity Forum chairperson Benedicto Kondowe said that a clear majority is not just about numbers, but discipline.
Said Kondowe: “When you add the seats won by MCP, UTM and independent MPs to those of other smaller parties, the arithmetic tilts in favour of the opposition bloc. However, fragmentation among independents or small parties could blunt this advantage.”
This view was echoed by University of Malawi lecturer in legislative and electoral politics, Gift Sambo, who cautioned that the influence of independents may be short-lived.
“The proliferation of independents and the emergence of another crop of MPs from UTM won’t guarantee the dominance of the opposition in Parliament. This is the case due to the fact that most of these independents will eventually join the ruling party,” said Sambo.
But the experts agreed that a balanced Parliament would enhance its role in holding the executive accountable.
Said Kondowe: “It strengthens Parliament. A balanced chamber compels dialogue, compromise and scrutiny of executive decisions. Where one side has overwhelming dominance, accountability tends to suffer.”
Political analyst George Chaima agreed, saying: “The situation makes the government focus its business on genuine developmental needs. It also ensures transparency, accuracy and accountability.”
However, according to Chaima, this will inevitably affect government’s ability to pass legislation, including the crucial National Budget.
Kondowe noted that close numbers mean the ruling side will have to negotiate consistently, reducing its margin for error.
Despite this, another analyst, Ernest Thindwa, offered a different perspective, pointing to the country’s history with hung parliaments.
He said: “Since 1994, we have always had a hung Parliament… but does not often adversely affect the governing capacity of the ruling party, essentially because of the absence of ideological distance between parties.”
According to Thindwa, politicians often focus on popular promises and personal rewards rather than party loyalty.
The UTM Party and the large contingent of independent MPs are poised to wield some influence in the august House.
Said Kondowe: “UTM and independent MPs will be kingmakers in this Parliament. Their votes can tilt the balance on critical divisions.”
Sambo also observed that the new administration holds an advantage in attracting support due to its control of State resources.
“The ruling party is capable of making believable promises owing to the fact that it has numerous sources of patronage,” he said.
The experts also observed that the election of the Speaker will be a critical first test of the new administration, saying there is need for a neutral and experienced individual.
“The position of the Speaker is critical. Ideally, you need individuals with high experience in legislative politics. Political maturity is what matters in this case and not necessarily camps,” said Sambo.
On the qualities of an effective Leader of Opposition in such a setting, the analysts called for a balanced approach.
“The opposition is not there to rubberstamp government proposals. Instead, as a government-in-waiting, the opposition should demonstrate political leadership by providing effective checks and balances,” Sambo said.
In its preliminary statement on the elections, Sadc Electoral Observation Mission (Seom) said it noted concerns that an independent candidate, having been elected, may join a political party.
“The Constitution only prohibits crossing the floor by Parliamentarians who belong to a political party, but not by independent candidates.
“The mission is of the view that this position denies voters who elected an independent candidate the right to be represented without an alignment to, or influence from, a political party,” it reads in part.
