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Bursting property pricing bubble

Malawi is currently facing a deepening housing crisis as evidenced by rising demand, limited supply and rapidly escalating property prices.

Experts increasingly criticise government housing policies for failing to match economic realities, while property prices in urban centers have risen to exceed those in middle-income countries like South Africa.

Alarmingly, these prices soar beyond the properties’ actual economic valuations.

The traditional market principle of a willing buyer and a willing seller risks becoming distorted, exposing consumers to exploitation amid worsening economic stability.

One of the practical policy interventions to address this challenge is the introduction of mandatory valuation disclosure in property transactions.

Under normal market conditions, the willing buyer and willing seller principle assumes that both parties have access to sufficient, accurate and comparable information to negotiate a fair price.

However, this assumption frequently does not hold on Malawi’s property market where many buyers, particularly first-time homeowners and middle-income earners, lack access to professional valuation data.

On the other hand, sellers and developers often possess superior market knowledge or exploit information asymmetry by setting prices based on speculation rather than intrinsic value.

This imbalance undermines genuine consent and results in prices that do not reflect market fundamentals such as location, construction quality, rental yield or long-term economic productivity.

Mandatory valuation disclosure would require that any property offered for sale be accompanied by an independent, professionally certified valuation report, disclosed to prospective buyers before a transaction is concluded.

Such a policy would not interfere with the freedom of willing buyers and sellers to agree on a final price.

Instead, it will enhance the integrity of the negotiation process by ensuring that decisions are informed rather than coerced by opacity or hype. It will also flush out money laundering through property over pricing.

Housing often represents the single largest financial commitment in a person’s lifetime. Valuation disclosure will significantly reduce the risk of exploitation. Buyers would be empowered to compare the asking price with an objective assessment of value, enabling them to negotiate more confidently or walk away from grossly overpriced properties.

Beyond consumer protection, valuation disclosure would be critical in safeguarding the broader economy. Inflated property prices contribute to speculative bubbles, where prices rise not because of real demand or economic productivity, but due to expectations of continued appreciation. Such bubbles are inherently unstable.

When the bubble bursts, the consequences can ripple across the financial system, affecting banks, pension funds, and public confidence.

In our case, unchecked property inflation poses a serious systemic risk.

Banks and other lending institutions rely heavily on property valuations when issuing mortgages and loans. If lending decisions are based on inflated prices rather than realistic valuations, financial institutions become exposed to demand more collateral than the loan value.

Mandatory valuation disclosure would improve credit risk assessment by aligning loan values with real asset worth.

This would strengthen the banking sector, reduce the likelihood of non-performing loans and promote sustainable credit growth aligned with economic fundamentals.

Moreover, transparent valuations contribute to more accurate national economic data. Property prices influence inflation measurements, urban planning decisions and public infrastructure investment.

When prices are distorted, policymakers may misallocate resources or underestimate housing affordability challenges. Mandatory valuation disclosure would create a reliable data trail that can inform evidence-based housing policy, land reform and urban development strategies.

Critically, valuation disclosure does not suppress market activity. Instead, it encourages healthier competition among developers and sellers.

Properties that are fairly priced and offer real value are more likely to attract buyers, while speculative and substandard developments are discouraged.

Over time, this can help stabilise prices, improve construction quality, and restore trust in the property market.

Malawi’s housing crisis is not only a supply issue but also a governance and transparency challenge.

While the willing buyer and willing seller principle remains fundamental, it cannot function effectively in an environment of information imbalance and speculative pricing.

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