The World Bank has highlighted addressing electricity supply, transport infrastructure, foreign exchange availability and mining regulations as critical to Malawi unlocking about $600 million (about K1.05 trillion) from mining by 2040.
The figure, an equivalent of about 9.6 percent of the K10.9 trillion 2026/27 National Budget, is higher than the $542 million Malawi earned from tobacco exports in 2025.
In a report titled ‘The energy transition minerals roadmap: From potential to prosperity’ launched in Lilongwe yesterday, the World Bank estimates that Malawi could generate more than $30 billion in mining exports between 2026 and 2040.
But the report cautions that, under business-as-usual conditions, only three of seven advanced-stage mining projects; namely, Kayelekera for uranium, Kasiya for rutile and graphite and Kangankunde for rare earths would proceed, a development that would limit annual government mining revenue to about $400 million by 2040.
“Malawi’s mining sector can transform the economy, but only with coordinated government action,” reads the report.
World Bank division director for Malawi, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe Firas Raad said coordinated reforms can unlock additional projects and increase annual government revenue by about 50 percent.
But he cautioned that the $600 million figure is a scenario, not a forecast and depends on factors such as project viability, commodity prices, community acceptance and implementation of reforms.
“Potential alone does not create development outcomes. Results will depend on the choices made, on investment conditions, on global markets and on the confidence of communities and investors alike,” said Raad.
The roadmap says the difference between the two scenarios will depend largely on Malawi’s ability to create conditions that allow more projects to reach development and production.
It said electricity is among the most immediate constraints. The roadmap estimates that mining operations could require 120 megawatts of additional power by 2032, while Malawi’s existing energy deficit, fragile grid and vulnerability to climate shocks are identified as major deterrents to investment.
Foreign exchange shortages, exchange-rate distortions and the 25 percent forex sequestration policy are also cited as significant barriers to foreign direct investment.
The roadmap estimates that mine development alone could require between $1.3 billion and $2.1 billion in private investment by 2040.
British High Commissioner Leigh Stubblefield said attracting such investment would require greater predictability, adequate infrastructure and investor confidence.
She said development partners identified three priorities: improving geological data management and sharing; addressing policy, legal and regulatory bottlenecks; and improving investment conditions to move viable projects forward.
Natural Resources Justice Network national coordinator Kennedy Rashid said Malawi also needed to complete its mining regulatory framework and improve coordination among institutions responsible for the sector.
Minister of Mining Thoko Tembo acknowledged that mineral potential alone would not deliver economic transformation.
He said government plans to improve licensing and cadastre systems, strengthen geological information, provide greater policy and legislative predictability and improve its approach to mining development agreements and contract negotiations.
Under the Malawi 2063 development strategy, mining is prioritised as a primary driver to propel the nation towards lower middle-income status by 2030 and upper middle-income by 2063.
While the sector’s current contribution is minimal at about one percent, it historically accounted for approximately 10 percent of the national economy prior to 2014 when Kayelekera Uranium Mine in Karonga went under maintenance and care following a crash in uranium prices.
