Crop production under threat

The 2023/24 agricultural season faces potential threat from El Nino which may affect crop output and increase the number of food insecure households projected at 3.74 million.

Malawi Food Security Outlook for June 2023 to January 2024, published by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network, states that this will compound the food insecurity situation in the country, already affected from effects of Cyclone Freddy, droughts and dry spells.

The weather phenomenon is often associated with delayed start of rainfall, below-normal precipitation and dry spells

Agriculture economists and experts have since pointed out that the risk of relying on rainfed agriculture is increasing amid climate change and that there is a need to intensify alternative means of production.

But the Ministry of Agriculture says the government is implementing various measures to support farmers in case El Nino effects become dire.

Malawi’s agricultural production, specifically maize, which is the country’s staple food, solely relies on rainfall, and the sector accounts for more than one-quarter of the gross domestic product (GDP).

Threats on agricultural productivity also has potential to derail achievement of goals set in the country’s long-term development agenda, Malawi 2063 (MW2063), where increasing agricultural productivity and commercialisation is one of the key pillars.

According to the Food Outlook, the years Malawi had El Nino conditions the farming season was characterised by low output; hence, increasing food insecure at household level.

Reads the report: “The historical pattern suggests the likelihood of below average harvests and increased acute food insecurity in the upcoming rainy season.

“[And] the number of households facing [food] crisis outcomes in late 2023 and early 2024 is expected to be atypically high, particularly in districts of the southern Malawi.”

Meanwhile, food crisis outcomes are expected to persist across most parts of the Southern Region through January 2024, driven by agricultural production shortfalls in the 2022/23 season.

A World Meteorological Organisation forecast published on July 4 2023 states that there is 90 percent probability that El Nino will continue during the second half of 2023, triggering extreme weather conditions such as high temperatures.

Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources agriculture economist Dr Samson Katengeza in an interview said Malawi has several alternatives in the face of such production threats.

Among others, Katengeza pointed out early planting of key crops such as maize and other cereals, ensuring farmers use early maturing and drought tolerant maize varieties, using climate-smart agriculture technologies and intensifying irrigation farming.

He said: “Knowing the high dependence of most of the farmers on the Affordable Inputs Programme [AIP], the government should treat this with utmost urgency to ensure that inputs are available as early as September or October for farmers to plant with the first rains.”

Katengeza also stressed that there is a need to preserve every single grain harvested in the previous season.

He said stories that maize and other commodities are finding their way outside Malawi borders are not only unfortunate, but sad especially in the wake of such production and output threats.

On irrigation, Katengeza said the government should make deliberate efforts to encourage and support large farmers to grow strategic crops under the system.

Another agriculture economist, Steve Kayira, agreed with Katengeza, adding that planting crops with different growth patterns and resistance to drought reduces the risk of crop failure.

He said this increases the chances of successful harvests even in unfavourable weather conditions.

Said Kayira: “Adopting conservation agricultural practices such as minimal soil disturbance, mulching and crop rotation enhances resilience of farming systems as it helps retain soil moisture, reduces erosion, and improves soil health.

“This makes farming less reliant on rainfall.”

Agricultural policy expert Tamani Nkhono Mvula in a separate interview said: “The coming in of this El Nino warning should tell us that we are going to have a lot of dry spells that are going to be experienced and the kind of crops that we need to promote this year should be tolerant to drought.”

He said it would be imperative, therefore, for the subsidy programme to include provisions of vines so as to improve the production of tubers.

Minister of Agriculture Sam Kawale in an interview said the government is, among others, promoting diversification of crops, conservation agriculture, use of climate resilient varieties, investing in irrigation systems and water harvesting techniques.

He said: “Government will continue implementing AIP in the season through distribution of subsidised inputs such as seeds and fertilisers with a priority on drought resistant crops.

“This is apart from strengthening extension services to provide farmers with information on climate smart agricultural practices, including conservation agriculture techniques and improved methods which will be prioritised to enhance their resilience to El Nino.”

Kawale also pointed out that the government will continue subscribing to macro and  micro-level insurance to protect farmers against potential losses due to climatic events like El Nino.

He said the government is also building the strategic grains reserves (SGRs) using different sources such as the World Bank Financial Facility (65 000 metric tonnes), Government Budget (20 000 metric tonnes, crop insurance pay-outs (11 000 metric tonnes) and Contingence Emergency Response Component (21 000 metric tonnes).

“These will be used for relief maize distribution by the Department of Disaster Management Affairs and price stabilisation by Admarc in case the impact of El Nino becomes dire, reducing the supply of maize in the country,” said Kawale.

Farmers Union of Malawi chief executive officer Jacob Nyirongo said it is important that the government restocks the SGRs with adequate maize that can be used for price stabilisation and emergency response for the most vulnerable households.