World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has confirmed an “exceptionally” high likelihood of nearly 100 percent El Niño weather phenomenon until February 2027.
WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo said in a statement at the weekend that there was a 100 percent possibility of the phenomenon occurring until next year.
“This is the first time that we have expressed such a degree of certainty. It may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began [in the past four decades],” she said.
| WMO
In June this year, the Ministry of Natural Resources issued an El Niño Preparedness Brief that indicated an 80 percent chance of a strong to very strong El Niño event developing in the tropical Pacific Ocean and affecting the 2026/27 rainy season.
WMO said this year’s El Niño could break the record of the 2023/24 El Niño which contributed to 2024 being the warmest year on record. It is expected to have significant impacts on rainfall and temperature patterns, with associated risks of floods, drought and extreme heat.
But the statement said its intensity does not mean the same impacts will be felt everywhere.
On Friday, Chief Secretary to the Government Justin Saidi, who also chairs the Ad Hoc Cabinet Committee on El Niño, said Malawi requires K488.5 billion to prepare for a possible El Niño-induced dry spell during the 2026/27 season.
However, only K163.7 billion had been mobilised so far, leaving a funding gap of K324.8 billion.
According to the Ministry of Natural Resources, during the October-December rain-fed agriculture planting season, Malawi is likely to experience below-normal rainfall, particularly in districts in the Southern Region.
The Northern Region and parts of Central Region are more likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall during the October-December sub-season, according to the Department of Climate Change and MeteorologicalServices.
