Despite a recent pre-election survey placing the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) ahead, Malawi Congress Party (MCP) says it remains confident in its path to victory, citing growing support and strategic voter mobilisation.
The survey, conducted by the Institute of Public Opinion and Research (Ipor) between August 14 and 27, 2025, shows DPP leader Peter Mutharika leading with 41 percent of the vote, followed by MCP’s Lazarus Chakwera at 31 percent.
However, no candidate reached the 50-percent-plus-one threshold required for an outright win, suggesting a potential runoff within 60 days, as mandated by law.
According to what the law stipulates, a re-run is supposed to take place within a 60-day period.
Reacting to the findings, MCP Publicity Secretary Jessie Kabwila issued a statement on Friday, saying the party views the survey not as a setback, but as confirmation that its campaign strategy is resonating with voters.
Kabwila said Ipor’s survey findings are more than encouraging as they validate MCP’s strategy and confirm that Malawians are responding to Chakwera’s servant leadership and a hopeful, inclusive vision for the future.
“The survey confirms MCP’s dominant and unwavering support in the Central Region, which holds the highest number of registered voters nationwide. This is no accident; MCP actively mobilised its base to register while others discouraged participation,” said Kabwila.
“The result is a formidable and stable foundation for national victory—an emphatic endorsement of the President’s leadership and the party’s development-driven agenda. We project that support for President Chakwera in the Central region will exceed 80 percent.”
The pre-election survey found that 11 percent of those surveyed remain undecided against 12 percent in the last study conducted in July this year.
In the first survey Ipor conducted in July, Mutharika got 43 percent while Chakwera had 26 percent.
Kabwila said MCP’s five-point increase in support while figures of DPP decline is more than a statistic but a resounding affirmation that the party’s message of unity, integrity and progress is resonating with Malawians across the country.
She claimed that if another objective survey was to be conducted at present, MCP would secure over 46 percent in the Southern Region, 78 percent in the Eastern Region and 77 percent in the Lower Shire.
Kabwila said: “The report identifies a substantial bloc of unidentified voters, particularly in the competitive Northern Region—where MCP has already gained significant ground. The momentum observed suggests these voters are increasingly aligning with President Chakwera’s vision for Malawi.
“Should another poll be conducted today, we believe MCP would command up to 79 percent of the Northern Region vote. MCP remains focused and disciplined. We will not be complacent. Our campaign will continue to engage voters in every region, earn the trust of the undecided and reinforce the confidence of our supporters. We are on course to win decisively on 16 September 2025.”
In an earlier interview, DPP assistant administrative secretary Ishmael Jones Milanzi said they are happy that Mutharika is still the frontrunner. But he pointed out that the figures did not fully represent the party’s current standing, saying the survey was conducted before Mutharika began his campaign trail.
According to Ipor’s survey findings, UTM Party presidential candidate Dalitso Kabambe came third with six percent followed by Atupele Muluzi of United Democratic Front (UDF) with three percent.
Former president Joyce Banda of People’s Party (PP) would secure two percent while the remaining 12 presidential candidates shared one percent of the votes.
The survey also found that there are several factors that influence voters’ choice of presidential candidates.
Topping the list of factors is commitment to a corruption free government with 51 percent rating, manifesto at 40 percent, candidate’s party at 33 percent, choice of running mate 30 percent, family loyalty 23 percent, candidates’ region of origin 22 percent, candidates’ ethnicity 19 percent, handouts and candidates’ religion 17 percent each and intimidation by political party operatives got six percent.
Prior to release of the findings, debate ensued on the funding of the surveys.
MCP secretary general Richard Chimwendo Banda accused DPP of sponsoring ‘fake opinion polls’ to manipulate voters while DPP spokesperson Shadric Namalomba said MCP was a cry baby.
Ipor director of training and programmes Professor Michael Chasukwa last week could not disclose the identity of the financiers and the total amount spent on the national survey.
But he said: “But I can challenge you that no political party here would accuse Ipor that they gave us any penny to conduct these surveys.”
