Opposition candidate Arthur Peter Mutharika (APM) of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has established a commanding lead in Malawi’s 2025 presidential election, with partial results showing him well ahead of incumbent Lazarus Chakwera of the Malawi Congress Party (MCP).
With 24 of 36 councils declared, Mutharika has secured 2,138,746 votes, representing 66.7 percent of the 3,206,686 valid ballots counted so far, according to verified figures from the Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC). In contrast, Chakwera trails significantly, underscoring the scale of the challenge before the incumbent.
MEC data indicates that 3,293,767 Malawians voted, of which 83,781 ballots were null and void—a rejection rate of about 2.5 percent—highlighting gaps in procedures or voter education in some councils.
Vote Arithmetic
Mutharika’s path to victory appears firmly within reach. To achieve the constitutional 50%+1 threshold, he requires 2,344,587 votes—just 205,841 more from the 12 councils yet to declare: Mangochi District, Mangochi Municipality, Ntcheu, Chiradzulu, Nkhatabay, Blantyre District, Karonga District, Phalombe, Lilongwe District, Kasungu District, Dedza and Mchinji.
Our projections assume that the voter turn out remains at 65.1 percent (4 689 172) of the total registered voters (7 203 390). The threshold may also be lower based on null and void votes cast in the remaining councils.
Chakwera, by contrast, faces an uphill battle. He would need 1,609,931 votes from the remaining councils to meet the same benchmark—an outcome that appears increasingly improbable given the current margins.
The distribution of the yet-to-be-declared councils is now key. Historical data shows that some of these areas lean towards Mutharika, compounding the incumbent’s difficulties in closing the gap.
Rivalry Shaped by History
The significance of today’s contest is rooted in the political rivalry between the two men. Mutharika, who served as president from 2014 to 2020, was defeated by Chakwera in the court-ordered 2020 re-run election.
That vote followed the annulment of the 2019 election, which the Constitutional Court ruled had been marred by widespread irregularities under the leadership of then-MEC chair Jane Ansah—now Mutharika’s running mate.
Chakwera’s 2020 victory was built on the Tonse Alliance, a coalition that united former president Joyce Banda and then-vice president Saulos Chilima.
Five years later, the disintegration of that alliance has reshaped Malawi’s political landscape, weakening the coalition’s once-formidable electoral machinery.
