Economists have cautioned that rising non-food costs can feed into agricultural production and distribution, reversing some of the gains made in overall inflation fall.
In an interview on Sunday, University of Malawi economics lecturer Edward Lemani said sustained increases in fuel, transport and imported production inputs prices can generate secondary inflationary pressures.
“Sustained increases in non-food prices can generate second-round effects on food inflation and disrupt the current disinflationary trajectory,” he said.
In a separate interview, Centre for Agriculture Research and Development economist Patrick Chimseu said Malawi’s inflation is largely influenced by production costs rather than excessive consumer demand.
He identified fuel prices, transportation expenses, foreign exchange shortages and high borrowing costs as major channels through which non-food inflation could eventually affect food prices.
“These supply-side pressures can reinforce inflation even when domestic demand remains weak,” he said.
Despite the cited risks, the latest inflation figures indicate progress towards the Malawi Government’s 15 percent end-year inflation projection underpinning the 2026/27 National Budget.
National Statistical Office data show that year-on-year headline inflation rate for September 2026 at 19.4 percent is 4.4 percentage points above that projection, but substantially below the 28.4 percent annual average recorded in 2025 and the 26 percent inflation rate at the end of that year.
The downward trajectory suggests improving prospects for price stability although achieving the government’s projection will depend partly on containing persistent non-food inflation, according to economists.
