On September 16, Malawians go to the polls to elect the President, members of Parliament and ward councillors to serve the country until 2030.
As the country counts down to the general election, there is a possibility that the presidential poll may go into a run-off within 60 days if no single candidate vying for the top job wins over half of the valid votes.
The repeat election makes the 50+1 electoral system, endorsed by the Constitutional Court in the landmark ruling in which five judges nullified the 2019 presidential case citing irregularities, costly both financially and logistically.
However, it has become a critical factor in shaping electoral strategies, including political coalitions, in the country.
The nation must get ready for a second round of voting.
A few months ago, every party seemed poised and determined to compete on its own. Now, the political landscape is shifting, with United Democratic Front (UDF), Peoples Party (PP) and Mafunde announcing that talks over a potential alliance are underway.
Looking at the alliance dynamics, particularly in the opposition parties, we are likely not going to see them coming together.
On the other hand, the governing Malawi Congress Party (MCP) is also being shunned by other parties due to its unpopularity and how it handled the leadership of the defunct Tonse Alliance.
If this situation persists, Malawians should expect a divided vote where no party will reach the 50+1 mark to win the presidency.
The runoff will stretch both the political parties and the Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) financially and logistically, but it will also be an opportunity for Malawians to appreciate the vibrancy of our new electoral laws. Should that happen, this will be the first time the laws are being put to use or to test.
So how should ‘smaller parties’ position themselves within the 50+1 electoral system to remain relevant?
The so-called small parties must not see themselves only within the dynamics of this election. There is more to their survival than how they will position themselves in the forthcoming election.
The bitter reality is that they are far from winning this election, but they could be kingmakers.
The best they can do is align themselves with other parties and hope to be part of the government should their coalitions emerge victorious. If not, the ‘small parties’ need post-election strategies with much emphasis on their manifestos and aligning themselves with the needs of Malawians.
We have more elections to come and it will be wise for the small parties to prepare themselves for those as the scope of the September 2025 General Election seems to be already narrowed down to the so-called big parties
Currently, there is no law that makes coalition agreements legally binding and this creates pit-traps for coalition governance and post-election political stability.
The absence of laws spelling out the legality of the electoral coalitions opens the field for abuse. This means that the alliance partners can treat each other anyhow without repercussions.
The nation has already seen how the MCP-led Tonse Alliance disintegrated into chaos after the politics that united the allies changed, especially after President Chakwera defeated his predecessor, Peter Mutharika, in the court-ordered presidential election of June 2020.
The new electoral changes need a strong foundation, including an impact in Parliament. However, this may also lead us to the debate on our system of government, whether we have to maintain the presidential system or opt for the parliamentary system.
If necessary, the country needs to go all the way to change this to give life to electoral alliances. In the present framework, electoral alliances are only marriages of convenience, which is not healthy for our democracy.
What lessons can political parties draw from the Tonse Alliance experience, where many dropouts cited power imbalances and lack of transparency and accountability?
First, the disbanded alliance was created in a rush, but one can understand the quick succession of events in the run-up to the 2020 election, which was ordered by the court after the annulment of Mutharika’s highly contested re-election in 2019.
However, now that they have enough time, parties need to take time to create alliances based on principles that have been thoroughly discussed and agreed upon.
Second, party leaders must ensure their supporters respect or keep up with their agreements.
Up to now, Tonse allies have not disclosed the contents or building blocks of their coalition to members of the nine parties that signed up to it and the nation is still groping in the dark—even the voters who elected Chakwera, its torchbearer in 2020.
It is a mockery to party followers and the electorate to be expected to vote for an alliance whose agreements they know nothing of. The supporters are not pawns, but Malawians who would like to understand their role in their country through their parties.
Third, alliances must have a liaison team to organise its meetings, resolve conflicts and implement the shared manifesto to ensure there is sustainable contact and dialogue between the parties, beyond the presidents who are often caught up in running government and State affairs.
Most importantly, the country should introduce laws to formalise political alliances to protect the interests of both allies and voters.
However, as a safeguard to avoid what led to the collapse of the Tonse Alliance, parties have to be allowed to use common symbols to avoid giving one party a visibility advantage over the others.
Unlike the 2020 scenario where the Tonse went to polls under the MCP black cockerel, shared symbols will enhance the identity and unity of the alliance partners. They will see each other as equals, not kingmakers and auxiliaries.
However, the nation need to incorporate elements of a parliamentary system of government where the numbers in Parliament of the alliance partners do determine the presidency.
In the absence of the necessary laws, it is tricky for voters to ensure that the winning alliance honours its promises and agreements after winning the presidency, especially when pre-election agreements are unclear and under lock and key.
Since alliances are only guided by political agreements, party supporters must demand clarity and accountability to the agreements.
When Malawians understand the reasons for an alliance, they will start following up on how and whether their parties are honouring the agreements and commitments for the good of the nation.
With transparency and accountability, the supporters of each political party in the alliance can summon their leaders to give a state-of-the-alliance update, an opportunity for the supporters to review their interests in the alliance.
Lest we forget, supporters are the main reason a political party exists and they need to have an important say in every party decision.
*The author is a political scientist and this article is an abridged version of an interview with our Staff Reporter Allan Nyasulu.
