A recent Afrobarometer opinion poll shows that no presidential candidate will single-handedly win over half of the valid votes in the September 16 General Election. What does this mean for parties that have indicated to go solo even though the 50+1 electoral system stipulated in the Constitution seem to favour coalitions? Our Mzuzu Bureau Supervisor JOSEPH MWALE takes the big question to National Initiative for Civic Education (Nice) executive director Grey Kalindekafe. Excerpts:
Q : What do you make of major political parties’ stance against electoral alliances?
A : Pre-election and post-election coalitions of political groupings have become an important feature in contemporary African politics. They seek to achieve social, political or economic aspirations that may be unattainable by individual groups or societies. In Malawi, electoral alliances have generated a lot of interest among Malawians, especially with 50%+1 rule. Section 32 of the Constitution gives all citizens the freedom of association and Section 40 guarantees political choice. However, political parties are under no obligation to form or join alliances. Their reluctance to form coalitions ahead of the September 16 elections reflects a combination of overconfidence and mistrust.
Q : How do you explain that mix of overconfidence and mistrust?
A : It appears many parties believe they can secure a majority on their own, underestimating the potential for voter fragmentation. This approach could lead to a runoff, which is both costly and politically destabilising. Additionally, ideological differences, competition for leadership positions and a lack of trust between party leaders may hinder alliance formation.
Q : What needs to change for the parties to form alliances?
A : For alliances to be effective, political parties must wilfully sacrifice their divergent individual long-term interests for the sake of mobilising and realising intermediate collective goals, in this case, winning the polls.
Before going into any alliance, they must critically assess what they are sacrificing and how much they are benefitting. Alliances emerge from selfless and predatory interests in both democratic and autocratic dispensations.
Q :Are Malawians interested in electoral coalitions after the dramatic rise and fall of the Tonse Alliance?
A : It seems Malawians are increasingly getting interested in the motives and consequences of electoral alliances as we draw closer to the general election. There is also some pessimism due to an exploitative culture of informality, political opportunism and a legal vacuum to encourage and regulate political alliances. We can only speculate that the political parties are at this stage of assessment and learning from the immediate past alliances. They may need to create mechanisms of making the agreements legally binding because the alliances can be abused by the dominant parties.
Q :Apart from mistrust and overconfidence, are there any more factors that can delay the formation of alliances?
A : Of course, several factors can contribute to the delay in forming alliances. These include the following:
Some party leaders may be unwilling to compromise on who leads a coalition and others may be discouraged by historical rivalries and fears of betrayal during power-sharing deals after the election.
Uncertainty could also play a part as parties may be waiting for clearer polling data or nomination outcomes before committing to alliances.
Politics is about strategic positioning. Some parties might aim to negotiate from a stronger position closer to election deadlines.
Q :According to the Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) calendar, presidential, parliamentary and local government candidates are expected to collect and present nomination papers between April and June. Is this not the best time to finally make alliances?
A : Political parties need to reflect and assess the current socio-economic and geopolitical situation. They should carefully consider the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in our political environment to make proper decisions for their good and the good of all Malawians. I guess the timing of this crucial process is best known to all parties since MEC already released the electoral calendar to help them in making all important plans and decisions, including political alliances. The ideal time for forming alliances would be before candidates collect nomination papers in April or May. This allows coalitions to present unified candidates during nomination submissions in June. Early alliances also provide sufficient time for joint campaigns, voter mobilization, and resolving internal disputes before the elections. Delaying until after the first round could limit strategic options due to legal restrictions on changing candidates.
