The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a United Kingdom-based think tank, says President Lazarus Chakwera could face impeachment before his term expires next year because of the myriad economic shocks the country is experiencing.
The unit’s political and economic outlook forecasts the high living costs, due to shortages of fuel and food, with 22 percent of the population facing acute food insecurity, could stoke public protests.
While the report says Chakwera faces widespread popular dissatisfaction owing to poor governance and the enduring economic crisis, the former ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is uniformly out of favour with Malawians.
Says the report: “Nevertheless, the Democratic Progressive Party, which holds 62 seats in Parliament, and most recently ruled the country from 2014 to 2020, is also deeply unpopular, owing to its own dismal economic record and excessive government corruption under the former president, Peter Mutharika.
“Voting irregularities in the 2019 general election, which was initially declared for Mr Mutharika, but the re-run in 2020, have also damaged the DPP’s popular appeal.”
But the EIU expects the MCP to be able to co-opt smaller parties and independent candidates into a loose ruling coalition, as happened after the 2019 parliamentary poll.
Reacting to the report, Malawi Congress Party (MCP) publicity secretary Jessie Kabwila, while dismissing the contents, asked for more time.
However, DPP national publicity secretary Shadric Namalomba said his party could not offer direct reaction to the report as it lacks a solid research methodology framework that renders its conclusions “flawed and susceptible to personal biases”.
But while not directly responding to our questions, Namalomba said Malawians and the party’s international partners should be assured that the DPP “is undoubtedly forming government in 2025-2030”.
“This is due to our exceptional and proven leadership and successful management of the economy, unlike the MCP, who have destroyed our nation’s economy and now is in shambles,” said Namalomba.
He claimed Mutharika and the DPP would triumph in next year’s elections “as this is the desire of 99.9 percent of Malawians” who will come out to vote the party into power.
But political and governance expert George Chaima said while Chakwera may be struggling to govern the country, suggestions for impeachment and early elections are mere power-play.
“Researches [EIU findings] of this nature are based on sampling and direct contact with several people and out of the contacted people there are politicians.
“So much as these findings are conducted by economists, target different groups of people they are all linked to politics and I will not be surprised if there are politicians talking about the impeachment to unseat Chakwera,” said Chaima,
who is president of a local social think tank New Restoration Plan- Malawi.
Another social and political commentator Humphrey Mvula also said while it was correct that the socio-economic outlook has been relatively poor for some time, he does not fall for the EIU report.
According to Mvula, there are no signs or symptoms of either an impending political revolt or political machinations that would culminate into an impeachment of Chakwera or result in an early election before September 16 2025.
“How did they come up with this sensational report predicting elections one year ahead? What was the sample of the survey that gave birth to or guided conclusions in the report under reference?
“MCP and DPP remain the biggest parties in Malawi, at least for the time being, or probably up to the next election. There would be more complex issues that would influence voter’s choice in 2025.
“l don’t think it will be as simple as they prophesy. So, I will be slow to lend wholesale credence to most of the logical conclusions advanced in the report,” explained Mvula.
According to Section 86 of the Malawi Constitution, Parliament has the sole powers to impeach a President by two-thirds of the vote by members of Parliament. Grounds of impeachment include serious violation of the Constitution and or evidence of breach of some law.
In 2019, MCP amassed 59 seats in the 193-seat House. DPP, which is the main opposition party, got 53 seats. The UTM four, United Democratic Front got 10 seats. People’s Party, six. Alliance for Democracy, one seat. The rest of the seats, about 71, were taken by independent members. A number of independent MPs have shown allegiance to the government in voting for Bills.
The EIU report dated September 1 2024 but released on October 14 2024 also sees an intensified prospect of the country holding early elections before the scheduled September 16 2025 poll due to the economic challenges the country is facing.
According to the unit, this is because the pulling out of the UTM Party from the ruling Tonse Alliance due to policy disagreements has created parliamentary shiver and made “policy-making very challenging”.
Reads the report: “In July 2024, the UTM withdrew from the Tonse Alliance. This leaves the coalition without a parliamentary majority. In this context, Mr Chakwera could face impeachment, and there is an increased chance of early elections being called before the September 2025 poll.”
The 17-page one-click report claims that given the low public support for Chakwera, due to poor governance and the enduring economic crisis, the country will remain politically unstable up to 2028.
Chakwera came to office in 2020 as head of the Tonse Alliance, a coalition between his MCP and eight other political parties, promising sweeping economic and political reforms.
The other alliance members were People’s Party (PP), People’s Transformation Party (Petra), Alliance for Democracy (Aford), Umodzi Party (UP), People’s Progressive Movement (PPM), Malawi Forum for Unity and Development (Mafunde) and Freedom Party (FP).
Upon forming the alliance in 2020, MCP had 59 members of Parliament (MPs) while the eight partners together brought just 10 MPs (PP 5, UTM 4 and Aford 1), including a bonus of several independent legislators that aligned with the alliance.
However, just like UTM, the alliance’s main partner, four other disgruntled political parties—Aford, PP, Aford and PPM—also dumped the Tonse Alliance whose membership has now been reduced to only three—MCP, FP and Mafunde.
According to EIU, there has been almost no progress on the government’s reform agenda, particularly on reducing cronyism in public appointments, fighting corruption and creating jobs.
“Living standards are declining for most people, given weak economic growth, elevated inflation and high poverty levels [with more than 70 percent of the population living below the international poverty line of $2.15 a day in purchasing power parity terms].
“The coalition largely existed in name only, given enduring tensions between members, and the government had limited ability to pass legislation. However, without a parliamentary majority, policymaking will be even more challenging,” reads the report.
It further states that if the authorities are unable to stabilise the economy or address widespread food insecurity, there is a risk of major protests, particularly in the run-up to the 2025 elections, exacerbated by the loss of the parliamentary majority.
The think-tank, however, is mindful that the authorities have previously used tear gas and made large numbers of arrests to quell unrest, so crackdowns are inevitable although government is likely to follow a line of appeasement to prevent protests from jeopardising overall political stability.
An estimated 4.2 million people, which is about 22 percent of the population, are expected to experience high levels of acute food insecurity in the country.
EIU is a research and analysis division of the London-based Economist Group that provides forecasting and advisory services through research and analysis across the globe.
Created in 1946, the think-tank has experience in helping governments, businesses and financial firms to navigate the ever-changing global landscape and its research has reached out to over 200 countries.
