Greetings from the Munda wa Chitedze Farm where I relocated from the hustle and bustle of your city. Peace and only peace reigns supreme here and we are happy.
On the fifth day since the Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) started receiving nomination papers from aspirants in the September 16 General Election, the Institute for Public Opinion and Research (Ipor) released results of its opinion poll.
The results gave the DPP a 43 percent win, with MCP pegged at 26 percent, 12 percent undecided, six percent refused to disclose, while 5 percent tipped the UTM to win and 2 percent were for the UDF and 1 percent tipped the balance towards PP.
The Zomba-based social science research think tank, focusing on governance, development and public policy is renowned for surveys on these topical issues. It is for that reason that I will not go into exploring the methodology used in the survey, the research sample and other research modalities because I don’t have doubts about their prowess in research.
Much as such pointers show who may carry the day, the results are quite controversial, especially when one considers the fact that they were released only days after Peter Mutharika named Jane Ansah as his running mate.
We know the people at Ipor have high integrity, but at times like these some at the Farm conclude that the timing was just too perfect in that regard and the poll may have been designed to manufacture momentum for the DPP rather than to reflect the reality on the ground.
While recognising that the survey was carried out between July 6 and 20, it is a basic fact that there has been a lot of changes since contestants started unveiling their running mates.
A lot has changed, and that survey is obsolete. When Mutharika announced Jane Ansah as his running mate, the reaction of top gurus and supporters at the Bingu International Conference Centre in Lilongwe clearly showed the disappointment. There was a heavy din of silence in the hall, as top gurus were busy on their phones, while the wananchis did not sing the usual Ona pangolini song supporters have been singing once their running mate is announced.
So, you see, the choice of a running mate has eaten into the DPP’s purported 43 percent victory. That is simply because some supporters who indicated they would have voted for Mutharika would turn into the bulk of the undecided voters, or they may opt to vote for other candidates. A lot would change.
You see, we all watched with bated breath as Mutharika was being marshalled into the hall by his henchmen. You could actually see that the man is quite aged to stand in the elections. It took him time to sign the nomination papers and he was quite hard of hearing. He had to avoid the steps to the stage and we all watched in awe.
You see, the choice of Ansah raised eyebrows, especially when you consider that she was the MEC chairperson during the botched 2019 Tripartite Elections. It is general knowledge that the Constitutional Court called for a Fresh Presidential Election after the tippexed election that saw APM win. Right-thinking members of the society can read deeply into this.
Dear Diary, the survey was conducted before President Lazarus Chakwera announced his running mate. There was a clear dilemma on who he would choose between Catherine Gotani Hara and Vitumbiko Mumba. He chose Mumba.
That was a sharp twist to the tale. You see, Gotani Hara is Chakwera’s deputy in the MCP hierarchy and to opt for Mumba, who resigned from the party’s national executive committee is a surprise shift.
You see, while Gotani Hara is a very experienced politician, rising to being the first female Speaker of the National Assembly, and the first woman to hold the position of MCP deputy president, Mumba carries cards that resonate with the youthful voice. Not long ago he had a number of public lectures, including the one at the University of Malawi’s Great Hall where Mbuyiseni Dhlozi, the rhetorician with a stinging intellectual finesse was one of the discussants.
Dear Diary, born in 1985, Dhlozi is one of the representatives of the voice of the youth in Africa. His voice resonates well in a world where political positions have been seen as a retirement package for some. You see, this is the very reason we see so many recycled politicians.
Do I need to show how the Dalitso Kabambe-Matthews Mtumbuka combination will swing the votes and make the Ipor research useless? Both have the experience and education to show for being in leadership positions. Although they are both political novices, they have a lot to show for that certainly must change the voting patterns.
The votes will definitely swing, rendering the Ipor research obsolete.
By the way, in this election we have so many independent candidates. The research does not include the candidates! And then the question of voter apathy rears its ugly head this year.
In all, the research by Ipor may have been conducted in the most professional manner. But given a few issues, the think-tank can go back to the drawing board.
