Elections and governance expert Augustine Magolowondo says results of an opinion poll putting former president Peter Mutharika ahead in the September 16 General Election provides contestants with a chance to fine-tune their campaign messaging.
Findings of an Institute of Public Opinion and Research (Ipor) pre-election survey conducted between July 6 and 20 2025 published yesterday show that if elections were held during the period, then opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) president Mutharika could get 43 percent of the vote followed by incumbent President Lazarus Chakwera of Malawi Congress Party (MCP) at 26 percent.
The results show that no candidate is set to meet the 50-percent-plus-one vote threshold.
Commenting on the findings in an interview yesterday, Magolowondo said the survey presented an opportunity for political parties and independent presidential candidates to fine tune their campaign messaging.
“In the context we are in, political actors need to listen closely to this public mood. This research, controversial or not, gives them a clear set of issues that voters are demanding answers to,” he said.
Magolowondo said the coming weeks offer enough time for candidates to realign their strategies.
He said: “Public perception is fluid. We’re still weeks away from the election. If candidates are swift and serious in responding to what matters to voters such as jobs, food security, corruption then yes, they can still influence the outcome.”
In the survey, Ipor said it sampled over 2 600 adult Malawians across 27 districts using multistage stratified sampling to ensure national representation.
Releasing the findings in Lilongwe yesterday, Ipor director of training and research Professor Michael Chasukwa described the results as reflective of a growing desire for issue based politics, not regional or identity based loyalties.
The survey put UTM Party president Dalitso Kabambe in third place with five percent followed by Atupele Muluzi of United Democratic Front (UDF) at two percent and former president Joyce Banda of People’s Party (PP) with one percent. There are 12 percent of respondents who remain undecided and six percent declined to reveal their voting intentions, according to the survey.
The report said 95 percent of registered voters would definitely vote in the elections while Mutharika commands majority support among young voters, with 50 percent of them backing the 85 year old.
Said Chasukwa: “What is most striking is Peter Mutharika’s strong showing among young voters, with 50 percent of those aged 18 to 35 saying they support him. This suggests that concerns about his age may not be translating into lost support among the youth.”
He said one of the standout findings is that voters are increasingly focused on real issues of economic hardship, corruption and leadership integrity instead of regionalism or handouts.
Chasukwa also said voters expressed confidence in using technology during the electoral process, particularly in transmitting results from polling centres to the national tally centre.
However, he acknowledged that the survey does not capture developments that took place after July 20, including submission of nomination papers and running mate announcements by presidential candidates.
“These are important dynamics, but our study was completed before the campaign period officially began. For full insight, a follow up survey would be ideal,” Chasukwa said.
Reacting to the survey results in an interview, DPP spokesperson Shadric Namalomba said the party was thrilled and saw the poll as a strong endorsement of Mutharika’s leadership and appeal across age groups.
He said the party was especially encouraged by Mutharika’s lead among young voters and viewed the 12 percent undecided bloc as an opportunity to push for an outright win.
Efforts to get a reaction from MCP spokesperson Jessie Kabwila proved futile as her phone went unanswered on several attempts.
On the other hand, UTM Party spokesperson Felix Njawala welcomed the survey as a helpful input despite its timing.
In an interview, he said: “The only thing that we as a party can do is to look at the report and see what is making up the findings and look at how we can maximise our opportunity because that report is coming two months before the elections.”
Njawala observed that the campaign environment is fluid and full of possibilities.
The survey also paints a grim picture of the country’s economic landscape, with 87 percent of respondents saying the situation is bad while 76 percent said the economy has worsened in the past year.
However, the Tonse Alliance administration scored relatively well on health at 58 percent, water and sanitation at 56 percent, and education at 51 percent, but received low marks on job creation, cost of living and anti corruption efforts.
About 46 percent of the respondents said there has been no progress on campaign promises.
The Ipor survey also found that 76 percent of respondents said they trusted Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC), although only 31 percent believe the elections will be completely free and fair while 33 percent expect minor problems.
In the run up to the court sanctioned fresh presidential election in 2020, a separate Ipor survey had projected a commanding victory for Tonse Alliance torchbearer Dr Lazarus Chakwera and running mate Saulos Chilima, with 51 percent support against 33 percent for Mutharika and about 10 percent undecided.
The actual election, held on June 23 2020, resulted in a decisive win for Chakwera, who secured about 2.6 million votes, representing 58.6 percent of the vote while Mutharika received around 1.75 million votes, representing 39.4 percent.
In December 2024, pan-African pollster Afrobarometer findings showed that if elections were held last August, DPP would have gotten 43 percent of the vote while MCP would receive 29 percent and UTM seven percent followed by UDF at two percent. The rest of the parties would be left clutching one percent of the vote while 14 percent of those sampled were either undecided or refused to state their preference but four percent said they would not vote.
