Mixed rainfall pattern for 2022/23 season
The Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS) has forecast that many parts of the country will experience normal to above-normal rainfall in the 2022/23 season while other parts are likely to experience floods and dry spells.
In a statement on Thursday, the DCCMS said global climate models are projecting La Nina conditions known to enhance rains over southern Africa which may include Southern Malawi while suppressing rains over Eastern Africa which may include northern half of Malawi.
It reads: “During the period October to December 2022, normal to above-normal total rainfall amounts are expected over most areas of the country. However, there is a high chance of below normal rainfall amounts in the month of December mainly over the central and northern areas of Malawi.
“During the period January to March 2023, normal to above-normal total rainfall amounts are expected over most areas, with some pockets of below normal likely over the south eastern and central areas of Malawi.”
In addition, the season’s Climate Outlook shows that extreme weather events such as heavy rains leading to floods are likely to occur in prone areas while some parts of the country may experience pockets of prolonged dry spells.
It says episodes of above normal rainfall amounts are expected particularly over Nkhata Bay, Mzimba and Shire Valley areas with isolated cases of normal to below normal amounts over Mangochi, Zomba, Machinga and Dedza.
It advises: “However, areas that are predicted to have dry spells, drought tolerant crops are the best option. As well as, areas that are likely to have late onset and early cessation, then fast growing varieties are the best alternative.
“The warming temperatures and the high likelihood of below normal rainfall in December may likely affect the crop production during this month.
“The flood prone areas need to get prepared with measures to mitigate the impacts of the above normal rainfall predicted. Cities and councils should start dredging the waterways to avoid flash floods that are very likely during this season.”
In an interview, Shire Valley Agricultural Development Division (ADD) programmes manager Francis Mlewah said they have collaborated with the local government on a climate smart public works programme which ensures that farmers have some cash.
He said: “They get the money for participating in sustainable land management like construction of check dams along gullies, eyebrows in the river catchments along the slopes to contain soil erosion, and through tree-planting, among others.
“Under Shire Valley Transformation, we have a global environmental facility component to protect the catchments of rovers rile Shire, Mwanza. As an ADD, we are planning to conduct an intensive catchment conservation campaign for a month so that people are informed of the need to protect river banks.”
Mlewah said most people do not understand why the Lower Shire has floods almost every year, adding they are alert and monitoring events on the global scale.
Meanwhile, spokesperson for the Department of Disaster Management Affairs (Dodma), Chipiliro Khamula, has urged people in areas where they will experience climatic shocks to take the advice from DCCMS seriously.
According to Dodma, in January this year, Tropical Storm Ana affected 995 000 people with 190 000 displaced, 46 dead, 18 missing and 206 injured. In March, Tropical Cyclone Gombe affected an additional 159 226 people with 11 008 displaced, 39 dead and 27 injuries.
