The recent Institute of Public Opinion and Research (Ipor) survey results have stirred the political pot, with many quick to interpret the numbers as evidence of the popularity of geriatric former president Peter Mutharika, and as indicating a death knell for President Lazarus Chakwera’s re-election bid. But as with all statistics, the story they tell depends largely on how you read them; and just as importantly, what they leave out.
At first glance, the figures seem to suggest a static and stubborn political landscape: Peter Mutharika of the DPP retains 43 percent support; Chakwera trails at 26 percent; the rest is shared among other hopefuls. These numbers are identical to those recorded in previous Ipor studies conducted in late 2023 and again around September 2024. Identical, in three different contexts and over three different periods.
When the numbers don’t move, question the tool
From a technical standpoint, such repetition is a red flag. Malawi’s political terrain has not stood still. We have witnessed the tragic death of former vice-president Saulos Chilima, the emergence of new contenders such as Dalitso Kabambe, internal shifts within parties and most recently, Mutharika’s puzzling choice of a running mate. All of these are dynamics that ought to cause at least minor fluctuations in voter preference.
Yet, the Ipor poll numbers remain frozen in time, unmoved by events that have significantly changed the emotional and political atmosphere of the country. That alone should raise questions about either the sampling methodology or the timing and analysis of the survey. Polls, after all, are snapshots of public mood. And moods shift. If the picture never changes, maybe the camera lens is dirty.
Mutharika’s 43 percent – A Floor or ceiling?
Let us assume for a moment, however, that the numbers are broadly accurate. What then does 43 percent for Peter Mutharika really mean?
It means his core base is emotionally locked in. They have little regard for age, health, history, or even future. They are not voting for policy; they are voting out of memory, sentiment, and protest. Mutharika’s support is less about hope and more about habit. And that 43 percent? It is both his strength and his limit.
The real story here is not that Mutharika is strong. It is that in the past five years, Chakwera has not yet managed to peel away any of Mutharika’s support. That is not a statement of failure, but a sign that foundational reform and long-term planning, the kind of work this administration has prioritised, takes longer to convert into political capital. And that a considerable number of Malawians are focusing on sentiment rather than practicalities.
But that, too, is changing.
MCP’s 26 percent — A Dip, not demise
It’s tempting to compare this poll’s 26 percent with Chakwera’s commanding 58 percent win in 2020 and declare it a political collapse. But that would be a shallow reading. The 2020 election was not an ordinary moment. It was a historic convergence. It was a coalition-driven wave of anti-DPP sentiment, judicial legitimacy, and hope-fueled urgency. That 58 percent was not a baseline. It was a crescendo.
What matters now is not the drop, but the trajectory. The real campaign, the one that shapes outcomes, is just beginning. Over the next month, or months, if a 50+1 re-run becomes necessary, messages will crystallize, coalitions will reconfigure and voters will be asked not just to judge the past, but to envision the future. MCP has ground to cover, but it is far from disarmed. It retains a solid base, a national footprint, and a governing agenda it can credibly defend and build upon.
More importantly, the current figures may reflect what we can call a ‘foundation effect.’ It is the kind of temporary perception gap that occurs when a government prioritizes structural, long-term reforms over flashy quick wins. Under Chakwera, the administration has poured effort into fixing broken systems: public finance discipline, civil service reform, digitisation, procurement integrity and decentralisation frameworks. These are reforms that are deep, systemic, and often invisible to the casual voter.
They are not billboard achievements. Not yet. But they are important because they are what Malawi’s broken system needed. They are the kinds of investments that determine whether roads will last, whether jobs will be created sustainably, whether corruption will be tamed at the root, and whether Malawi can stand on its own feet.
In a political culture addicted to handouts and short-term appeasement, Chakwera has taken the high road which, politically is also the harder path. But that is precisely why this moment demands belief, not abandonment. The fruit of these foundations is just beginning to emerge, and the next five years offer the opportunity to unlock them fully.
What MCP must now do is not defend the past with spreadsheets, but animate the future with a vision: one that connects the groundwork to the gains; one that says to the voter, “We’ve cleared the weeds, the rocks and the bushes. The ground has been made ready. Now let’s build the house. Together.”
In this sense the opposition would do well to recognise that MCP’s 26 percent is not a death sentence. It is a platform. And from that platform, with honest storytelling and inspiring leadership, MCP can climb again.
The real question: Who will capture the floating voter?
In this poll, more than a quarter of Malawians are either undecided or aligned with smaller parties. That’s the battleground. That’s where elections are won. Elections are not won in the trenches of hardened party loyalty, but in the minds of those still weighing the future.
Mutharika’s 43 percent may be loud, but it hasn’t grown. Chakwera’s 26 percent may be leaner than expected, but it’s a base and one that can still be inspired and expanded. The battle is far from over. And no poll, however loudly it speaks, can predict what happens when a people decide they still want to believe.
But belief doesn’t sell itself. It must be communicated powerfully and consistently.
If MCP wants to expand from 26 percent, it must do five things. These things must be done urgently and deliberately:
1. Tell the invisible story.
The party must translate foundational reforms into real-life meaning. What does procurement reform mean for a mother in Dedza? What does digitisation mean for a small business in Mzuzu? Policy must become personal.
2. Inspire the disappointed.
Many voters are not angry. They are tired. Speak to their weariness with honesty, then lift them with hope. Chakwera’s speeches must now paint the future, not defend the past. This is a time for vision, not vindication.
3. Recapture the base.
Some core supporters have drifted, not out of betrayal, but disillusionment. Targeted messaging that acknowledges their pain and reassures them of the coming payoff can bring them home.
4. Engage the youth.
First-time voters were children in 2020. They need a reason to believe that government can still matter. Bold, future-facing youth engagement platforms such as digital, musical, policy-based initiatives can shift their hearts.
5. Out-organise the opposition.
Elections are not won on polls. They’re won on the ground. MCP must reawaken its grassroots machinery, reactivate local networks, and remind Malawians what steady, organised leadership looks like in contrast to recycled chaos.
This is how you grow from 26 percent. Not through panic, but through purpose. Not with noise, but with narrative. If Chakwera’s campaign now leans fully into vision, honesty and hope, it can still turn this moment into a launch pad for victory
