The Reserve Bank of Malawi (RBM) has described the current rise in inflation as a temporary bump in the road towards a broader downward trend rather than a reversal of progress.
RBM Deputy Governor for Operations Kisu Simwaka highlighted this in an analysis after April inflation rose for the first time in five months, increasing from 23.8 percent in March to 24.3 percent in April, mainly due to the recent fuel price hike.
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According to the National Statistical Office (NSO), the increase was driven by the fuel price adjustment effected on April 1, which pushed non-food inflation from 30.7 percent in March to 33.2 percent in April, offsetting a decline in food inflation from 20 percent to 19.1 percent.
The development comes at a time the World Bank and the Economist Intelligence Unit have forecast that the impact of the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran could erode Malawi’s gains in reducing inflation due to rising fuel and fertiliser prices.
Writing on his Facebook page, Simwaka described the rise in inflation as temporary, stressing that annual inflation is projected at 22 percent in 2026 , a significant decline from the 28.4 percent recorded last year.
Simwaka said: “April’s inflation data serves as a reminder that disinflation is rarely a straight line. This marginal uptick is a temporary bump in the road rather than a reversal of the broader downward trend.
“Annual inflation is projected to average 22 percent in 2026 — a significant decline from the 28.4 percent recorded last year. This anticipated deceleration will provide vital relief, allowing households to gradually rebuild lost purchasing power.”
However, Simwaka observed that the pace of the disinflation path remains highly dependent on foreign exchange market stability and global oil price movements, warning that if the Middle East conflict persists, non-food inflation could remain elevated.
“Driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, crude oil prices continue to hover roughly 40 percent above pre-war benchmarks, heavily spilling over into non-food inflation.
“Should these non-food price pressures intensify, headline inflation risks remaining sticky and tracking above the 20 percent threshold for most of the year,” Simwaka said.
In a separate interview, University of Malawi economics lecturer Edward Lemani said the development was expected because fuel price increases often transmit into higher prices of other goods and services, although the trend is likely to remain temporary due to existing downside risks.
“Normally, inflation pressures would be easing during this period due to moderating food prices and seasonal improvements in food supply. If the conflict involving Iran eases soon and Malawi avoids another exchange rate shock, inflation could gradually decline in the coming months.
“On a positive note, food inflation appears to be following a relatively favourable trajectory,” Lemani said.
Meanwhile, consumer rights activist John Kapito said the development was largely expected and noted that the increase was too small to have a significant impact.
In its May 2026 Malawi Inflation Report, the Economics Association of Malawi (Ecama) said the local economy faces a daunting task in reducing inflation to 15 percent by March 2027 as food prices, electricity tariffs, fuel costs and exchange rate pressures continue to weigh heavily on the economy.
Ecama argued that food prices remain the biggest obstacle because they account for more than half of the country’s inflation basket and contribute 13.5 percentage points to the country’s 23.4 percent headline inflation recorded during the first-quarter of 2026.
