Two of the country’s main presidential candidates are in a dilemma over running mates ahead of the September 16 2025 General Elections as it may determine leadership transition in 2030.
President Lazarus Chakwera, 70, of the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) leader Peter Mutharika, 84, are both completing the final terms of their leadership, according to their party constitutions.
Their respective party constitutions, which Nation on Sunday has seen, gives leaders two-term limits to pave the way for new leadership through an elective convention.
Chakwera assumed MCP leadership in 2013.
He led the party in the 2014 Tripartite Elections and in the disputed 2019 polls before forming a coalition with eight other parties under the Tonse Alliance to contest in the June 23 202 Fresh Presidential Election.
This means Chakwera, who quit the pulpit to join mainstream politics, will have served two terms by September 2025.
But following his victory in the 2020 Fresh Presidential Election, the two-term requirement was waived, giving him one more term to lead the party from 2025 to 2030.
Similarly, Mutharika—a Yale University trained professor of law— took over DPP leadership following the death of his brother, Bingu wa Mutharika, in April 2012.
He led the DPP to victory in the 2014 elections and in the 2019 disputed polls which were later nullified by the courts.
In the fresh presidential poll, he partnered United Democratic Front (UDF) with its leader Atupele Muluzi as his running mate.
According to DPP’s constitution, this means Mutharika is eligible for one more term.
In essence, both Chakwera and Mutharika each have one more term.
Based on this and the 50 percent plus one electoral requirement for one to be elected President, governance and political commentators observe that the choice of running mates is significant in the forthcoming elections as compared to previous polls.
Political analyst Wonderful Mkhutche said in an interview during the week that both Mutharika and Chakwera need to be strategic when choosing their running mates, considering the transition factor, aside from the new electoral system.
He said: “For MCP and DPP, the choice of running mate is a matter of life and death. In the shadows of the 50 percent plus one electoral system, the running mate has to be someone who can bring in votes. This is why President Lazarus Chakwera and DPPs Peter Mutharika have to be strategic when making their choices.
“The running mates must be beyond their own preferences, bearing in mind that the elections are about numbers. Moreover, the reality is that in 2030, we will not have Chakwera or Mutharika leading their parties or on the ballot. Therefore, the choice of running mates is also an opportunity to strategise on this transition.”
Mkhutche said the running mates will be familiar faces and names in their political parties.
He said this reality will likely force the two leaders to choose individuals from inside their political parties as running mates, or outsiders who can easily be accepted within the parties’ hierarchies.
According to a paper titled Malawi: A Battle of Former Presidents as Citizens Seek Path to Reform, published on January 13 2025 on the Africa Centre for Strategic Studies website, there is a strong possibility the polls will go to a second round.
Authors Joseph Siegle—director of research for the centre, and Hany Wahila—a research assistant from the same institution, argue that this will be as a result of the 50 percent plus one electoral system.
“Reaching this threshold will likely entail coalition building among other parties. This may elevate the leverage of smaller parties such as UTM and United Democratic Front, to shift the focus of the campaign away from the personalities and politics of the established parties and towards fresh proposals to address Malawi’s acute economic challenges,” reads the paper.
In a separate interview, political analyst Ernest Thindwa said choosing an outsider as a running mate for DPP and MCP will not be the easiest of options because of the leadership succession factor.
He said: “While candidates may be inclined to opt for an outsider to maximise votes in the face of the 50 percent plus one requirement, internal forces with an interest to succeed the party president in both parties may emerge as huge logs for the choice of an outsider as a running mate.”
Thindwa said electoral data analysis in the last two electoral cycles may also not provide sufficient incentives for the two major competing parties to pursue electoral alliances on the basis that none of the other parties can claim to command a decisive electoral appeal.
In the 2019 disputed polls, Mutharika won with 38.57 percent of the vote, MCP trailed with 35.41 percent with UTM coming third with 20.24 percent.
UDF got 4.68 percent, Mbakuwaku Movement for Democracy 0.41 percent, Umodzi Party 0.38 percent and independent candidate Reverend Hadwick Kaliya polled 0.31 percent.
Said Thindwa: “These performances can hardly guarantee a decisive edge in an electoral alliance.”
Currently, DPP is in talks with UTM, Alliance for Democracy and UDF for an electoral alliance while MCP is yet to disclose whether it will partner other political parties or go it alone.
Malawi Electoral Commission’s (MEC) preliminary voter registration figures show that 7.2 million voters have registered to vote in the September elections. But the figure, however, excludes 14 173 duplicate records which have been flagged by MEC’s system.
The preliminary registration figures represent 65.7 percent of the 10.9 million eligible population that would be 18 years by the time of polling, based on National Statistical Office projections
