President Peter Mutharika’s expanded social protection initiatives could ease short-term hardship, but social policy analysts warn the measures do not yet confront the structural forces affecting the economy and inequality.
In an interview on Friday in reaction to the State of the Nation Address (Sona) delivered by Mutharika in Parliament in Lilongwe, Centre for Social Concern economic governance officer Agness Nyirongo said the initiatives are socially responsive, but risk losing impact if underlying macroeconomic instability persists.
She said: “Food relief helps cushion vulnerable households against acute hunger, especially during high food prices and climate shocks.
“However, inflation in Malawi is often driven by structural factors such as currency instability, high import dependency and fiscal imbalances. Food relief addresses symptoms rather than underlying drivers.”
Nyirongo cautioned that if inflation remains elevated, the real value of loan schemes and social transfers erodes, weakening their protective effect over time.
“If inflation remains high, household purchasing power declines and social transfers become less effective,” she said.
In the Sona, Mutharika said when he took office in September last year, inflation was at 28.7 percent and government plans to reduce it to less than 21 percent this year.
On Friday, the National Statistical Office published figures which showed that inflation has declined to 24.9 percent in January 2026 from 26 percent in December 2025.
In the Sona, the President outlined a K129 billion fertiliser programme, free secondary education, youth and women empowerment loans and increased Constituency Development Fund (CDF) allocations as part of a broader stabilisation agenda.
But Nyirongo said constituency-level loan schemes can widen access to finance for excluded groups, particularly youths and women, but sustainability depends on governance and market design.
She argued that structural inequality in Malawi extends beyond immediate welfare support, citing disparities in land access, rural infrastructure gaps, limited industrialisation and high youth unemployment.
On his part, Catholic Commission for Justice and Peace national coordinator Lewis Msiyadungu said the emphasis on transparency in the use of CDF raised expectations.
“The Sona has explained how Constituency Development Fund funds will be utilised with strong emphasis on transparency and accountability measures,” he said.
Msiyadungu also welcomed the firm language on anti-corruption, expressing hope that governance institutions such as the Anti-Corruption Bureau, Financial Intelligence Authority, Malawi Police Service and the Judiciary would receive adequate human and financial resources to investigate and prosecute cases efficiently.
“It is our hope that the forthcoming budget will prioritise the needs of poor people,” he said.
In an earlier interview, World Bank Group Malawi senior social protection specialist Chipo Gondwe said reforms in the Malawi National Social Protection Policy should also diversify funding beyond donors.
She said: “Malawi needs to deliberately rebalance from a system where over 90 percent of social protection is donor-financed.
“This includes engaging the private sector, leveraging innovative financing such as payment-for-ecosystem-services models through climate-smart public works, and improving programme efficiency and coverage.”
From an institutional perspective, Mwapata Institute executive director William Chadza earlier said recent coordination reforms outlined in the national social protection programme provide a foundation for scaling up.
