Layman's Reflection

Is the Stock Market a safer bet against inflation?

If you’ve been watching your savings shrink in real value while prices keep climbing, you’re not alone. With inflation still biting and bank interest rates trailing behind, it’s no surprise that more Malawians are starting to ask: where else can I safely put my money?

The Malawi Stock Exchange may just have provided an answer. In the first half of 2025, it posted one of its strongest performances in recent memory. The Malawi All Share Index (Masi) jumped by more than 85 percent, and market capitalisation almost doubled to K17.4 trillion. For an economy still recovering from multiple shocks, that’s remarkable.

Leading the charge were banking and financial stocks. One mid-sized bank saw its share price rise by more than 300 percent in just six months. Others followed closely, with double- and triple-digit gains across the sector. Strong company earnings and positive trading updates created a wave of optimism—and investors, both large and small, rushed to get a piece of the action.

But what does this mean for ordinary savers? Is this really a sign that the stock market is now a better place to protect value than a savings account?

In many ways, yes. When inflation outpaces interest rates—as it is doing now—money sitting idle in a savings account is steadily losing purchasing power. Stocks, on the other hand, offer the potential for real returns that can beat inflation over time, especially when the underlying companies are growing.

This is not just for the wealthy. The recent rise in retail investor activity—ordinary people buying and selling shares—is proof that more Malawians are beginning to trust the market. That shift is being supported by efforts to make stock trading more accessible, including the roll-out of a mobile trading platform.

Still, there are reasons to be cautious. The current rally has been driven mainly by banking and financial stocks. While these companies have shown strong performance, concentrating your money in just one sector is risky. If something affects the banking industry—say, new regulations or a dip in consumer borrowing—it could drag down the whole portfolio.

Also, many of the biggest gainers are now trading at higher prices than usual. That means investors are paying more for each kwacha of expected profit. If those profits don’t grow fast enough to justify the price, we could see a market correction. And as we know from past experience, stock prices don’t just rise—they also fall.

Other sectors like property and telecoms have lagged behind, with only modest gains or, in some cases, no movement at all. This uneven growth reminds us that not all investments are created equal, and that a smart investor looks at the broader picture.

Let’s not forget the country’s wider economic context. Inflation remains high. The kwacha is under pressure. The fiscal situation is still fragile. All of this adds uncertainty—and the stock market reflects that reality too.

So, is now the time to invest? It depends on your goals. If you’re looking to preserve and grow your money over the long term—and are willing to accept some ups and downs along the way—then stocks can be a powerful tool.

But it must be done with care. Diversify across sectors. Start small if you’re new. Consider collective investment schemes that spread risk for you. And always keep an emergency fund separate from your investments.

The truth is, the stock market isn’t a place to chase overnight success. It’s a place to build wealth steadily and to outpace inflation over time. The recent performance of the Malawi Stock Exchange is encouraging—and it shows what’s possible when confidence, innovation, and strong company results come together.

For savers looking to stay ahead of inflation, this may be the right time to start learning, planning, and taking calculated steps toward investment. Because in the long run, doing nothing may prove riskier than taking a chance on the market.

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