Malawi’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) has more than tripled since 2017, rising by 21.6 percent from K6.53 trillion to K19.67 trillion in 2024 pushed by household consumption, the National Statistical Office (NSO) data show.
The NSO Malawi Expenditure GDP Report 2017-2025 indicates that preliminary estimates for 2025 show continued growth, with GDP reaching K8.14 trillion at constant 2017 prices and K24.76 trillion at current prices.
Reads the NSO report in part: “This growth was mainly driven by strong increases in private final consumption, supported by a recovery in gross capital formation in 2024 and 2025.
“Although exports increased, imports continued to grow at a faster pace, resulting in persistent negative net exports.”
The report further said that final consumption remained the largest expenditure component throughout the review period, increasing from about K6.39 trillion in 2017 to K10.36 trillion in 2024 and a preliminary K11.92 trillion in 2025 at constant (2017) prices.
Private final consumption expanded from K4.76 trillion in 2017 to K8.97 trillion in 2024 and K10.73 trillion in 2025, the report said.
NSO said that investment has also started to recover, with gross capital formation increasing from K1.18 trillion in 2024 to K1.39 trillion in 2025 at constant prices, after falling to K940 billion in 2023.
However, the economy continues to face significant external-sector imbalance, with exports declining to K718.5 billion in 2025 against imports of K6.13 trillion, pointing to continued reliance on imports to meet rising domestic demand.
Mzuzu University economics lecturer Christopher Mbukwa, commeting on the report on Tuesday, said the growth pattern is fragile as it is dominated by household spending rather than domestic production and exports.
“Household spending can support economic activities temporarily, but it cannot sustain domestic employment because we are largely a net importer country,” he said.
Mbukwa said that consumption of imported commodities can effectively support employment in other countries while increasing pressure on Malawi’s foreign exchange, exchange rate, inflation and public debt, which is currently at K24 trillion as of December 2025.
On the other hand, economist Milward Tobias, who contested as an independent presidentail candidate in 2025, warned that consumption-led growth in an economy with weak domestic production worsens the balance of payments and perpetuates foreign exchange shortages.
“Government economic policy promotes private sector-led and export-led growth because such growth is driven by production, creates job opportunities and generates more foreign exchange than the foreign exchange needed to pay for imports,” he said.
Business Partners International Malawi country manager Bond Mtembezeka said Malawi’s position as a net importer makes the current growth outlook increasingly worrisome, particularly because foreign exchange shortages are raising the cost of imported raw materials and intermediate goods needed by domestic businesses.
Centre for Social Concern economic governance programme officer Agness Nyirongo observed that for growth to become sustainable, Malawi needs to move from consuming more to producing more.
“The economy is growing, but the structure of that growth is problematic. This combination creates an economy that is heavily dependent on external resources to satisfy domestic demand,” she said.
On his part, Scotland-based Malawian economist Velli Nyirongo observed that unless the current pattern changes, higher consumption can increase the economy’s external vulnerability rather than strengthen its long-term position.
“The policy priority should be to move from consumption-led growth towards production-led growth,” he said.
The economists agree that the figures paint a mixed picture. While Malawi’s economy is expanding, much of the momentum is coming from household consumption, while investment remains on a recovery path and the widening gap between imports and exports continues to expose the economy to foreign exchange pressures.
