The Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services has forecast below normal rainfall in the 2026/27 season and warned that Southern and Central region districts could face serious challenges.
In an outlook released yesterday, the department said the Northern Region may receive normal to above-normal rainfall while southern areas could experience delayed rainfall onset, prolonged dry spells, reduced soil moisture and a shorter effective growing season for many farmers.
Reads the forecast: “Coupled with intense heat that accelerates water loss, agricultural output will likely suffer and maize production may significantly reduce compared to last season if mitigation measures are not put in place.
“Northern Malawi is expected to experience comparatively wetter conditions, although periods of above-normal rainfall may increase the risk of waterlogging, flooding and soil erosion in some areas.”
Further, the outlook shows that Lake Malawi levels are expected to recede by 0.2 to 0.3 metres.
With expected rainfall variability, delayed onset and prolonged dry spells, the department has urged early preparedness and timely climate-informed decisions, particularly in southern and central Malawi.
“Onset is expected to be significantly delayed over southern areas, slightly delayed over central areas, and normal over northern areas. Overall, established rainfall onset is expected from mid-December over the majority of the country,” further reads the statement.
In an interview last evening, agriculture extension expert Leonard Chimwaza said the outlook is timely and should lead both farmers and policymakers to come up with proper decisions and strategic plans in order Malawi to be food secure.
He appealed to policymakers to domesticate messages on good agricultural practices before onset of the rains.
“There is need for robust irrigation farming, quick approach towards restocking the strategic grain reserves, promoting crops in the roots and tubers family and national budget realignment so that priority is given to food security,” said Chimwaza.
In a written response yesterday, agriculture think-tank Mwapata Institute executive director William Chadza said the outlook poses a serious threat to agricultural production and food security.
“There is nearly 100 percent chance of a strong El Nino throughout the upcoming farming season, farmers’ attention is being drawn to planting on time, growing early maturing and drought tolerant crop varieties,” he said.
