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The Trump wave can be an opportunity to rise

After taking his oath as the 47th President of the United States of America on January 20, Republican Donald Trump, who also served as the 45th President, hit the ground running by issuing executive orders that have sent shockwaves across the world.

The Trump administration has effected a three-month suspension on almost all foreign development assistance pending review to assess what is in tune with its ‘America First’ policy. It is a fact the decision will have a huge impact on millions of lives globally dependent on American aid for life-saving medicine, medical services, food, shelter and subsistence assistance.

For the record, the US is the largest provider of humanitarian assistance and a global leader on HIV prevention and treatment through the President’s Emergency Plan for Aids Relief (Pepfar). In 2023, the US disbursed up to $70 billion in development aid, largely through the US Agency for International Development (USAid).

In issuing the executive orders, the Trump administration said the review seeks to assess the efficiency and consistency of the US foreign policy under the ‘America First’ agenda to “realign foreign assistance on behalf of hardworking taxpayers”, stating that it is not just the right thing to do, but “a moral imperative”.

Malawi is not spared US aid and the reactions from various quarters speak volumes. Fingers are crossed on what happens to hundreds of jobs, projects and life-saving interventions such as HIV and Aids management through anti-retroviral therapy. Further, there is the second Millennium Challenge Corporation compact worth $350 million focusing on improving transport infrastructure to facilitate agricultural production and access to markets. It was launched in May 2024.

Implications of the decisions have been instant with some projects here in Malawi already suspending operations pending further directions from Washington DC.

In the January 29 2025 edition of The Nation, it was reported that a total of $284.7 million (about K493.7 billion) financing through USAid to Malawi is at stake. Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs said of the amount, US contribution to the 2024/25 National Budget stood at K9.2 billion of the expected K1.17 trillion projected grants. Of course, the US puts in more through off-budget support, including K134 billion for HIV and Aids management, K81 billion for basic education and K53 billion in agriculture.

The situation does not look good for least developed and aid-dependent countries such as Malawi. But at the same time, this uncertainty and crisis can be turned into an opportunity to embark on a journey towards economic sovereignty, especially in sectors such as health where our government has all, but ‘abandoned’ the health of its citizens by predominantly depending on foreign taxpayers for the drug budget.

Some may argue that this is easier said than done. But come to think of it, how much in public resources can be saved through genuine reduction of unnecessary expenses through ghost workers, corruption, luxury cars for senior public officers and fraud in general. It is on record that about one third of the resources Parliament puts in the national budget ends up in people’s pockets instead of intended beneficiaries.

Essentially, Malawi needs trade more than aid. The World Bank Group describes trade as a golden key towards ending global poverty because countries that are open to international trade tend to grow faster, become innovative, improve productivity and provide higher income as well as more opportunities.

Political will at the highest level has become one of the golden keys to unlock trade and investment deals. This is the reason most global political leaders trot from one capital city to another to lend some weight to their countries’ bid for investment and trade.

Thus, there is need for greater political will towards implementing policies that support trade, industry and the private sector. These include the Private Sector Strategy, National Investment Policy, National Export Strategy and the Buy Malawi Strategy. Malawi also needs aggressive implementation of the import substitution policy and industrialisation.

Export growth is critical to attainment of Malawi 2063, the country’s long-term development strategy that envisages diversification of export products within the agricultural sector and towards other sectors, including mining and tourism as having potential to make a difference.

Every change in circumstances is painful, but it also marks a new beginning to start afresh with more experience.

To turn crisis into opportunity needs focus, discovering the power of vision, learning and unlearning, innovating to grow and stepping out of the comfort zone, among others.

During the Covid-19 pandemic, China viewed the word crisis from two perspectives, one standing for ‘danger’ and another ‘opportunity’. The pandemic was a crisis, but it was the reaction to it that set apart countries in terms of recovery.

There is also the fascinating ‘rags-to-riches’ story in the post-World War II era where South Korea and Taiwan, two of the ‘Asian Tigers’, defied the odds to turn around their fortunes. Here are two countries that in the 1950s were very poor and ranked lowly among the world’s poorest countries. However, today they are now among the world’s most productive and richest economies.

The difference between success and failure lies in identifying the means to tap into that energy that is beneficial both for the individuals and the country.

While we await the fate of the projects and resources under threat, the three-month period should offer time for reflection and soul-searching. They say where there is a will there is a way, if some have done it, Malawi can do it with a positive mindset change.

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