Afrobarometer’s latest sur vey provoked heated political debates in Malawi few days ago after suggesting that President Lazarus Chakwera would have been a one-term leader—if general elections were held last August.
Published last Friday by the University of Malawi’s Centre for Social Research, the survey, based on a nationally representative sample of 1 200 adults, revealed that 43 percent of respondents supported Mutharika’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), 29 percent backed Chakwera’s Malawi Congress Par ty (MCP), UTM got seven percent support, United Democratic Front (UDF) garnered two percent, other parties amassed one percent and 14 percent o f respondent s we re undecided wh i l e f o u r percent said they would not to vote.
Wh i l e a lmo s t a l l major political par ties dismissed these findings as ‘misleading’, only the DPP welcomed the results and we know why. They were favourable to them.
But our country’s history is very rich with humbling political lessons, reminding us all that no political party in Malawi is unbeatable— not even DPP and MCP (the count r y ’s biggest political parties).
Recall that MCP was unseated by UDF in 1994 after 31 years in power, JB’s People’s Party fell to the DPP in 2014, and the DPP itself was ousted by the MCP-led Tonse Alliance in 2020. So, at this stage, no party can afford to assume that victory in the 2025 elections is guaranteed.
Th a t s a i d , I w a s impressed with UDF leader Atupele Muluzi’s reaction. He openly admitted that his party has a huge task ahead to regain the trust of Malawians.
UDF was once a political powerhouse under Atupele’s f ather Bak i li Mu l u z i , winning 85 parliamentary seats out of 177 in the 1994 elections and 93 out of 193 in 1999. Then the figures started dropping with 49 in 2004, 17 in 2009, 14 in 2014 and 10 out of 193 in 2019.
And af ter yea r s o f intra-party squabbles and political purging mainly driven by succession woes, the party now hangs by a thread as evidenced by the latest Afrobarometer survey.
Bu t s t i l l A t u p e l e deserves credit for publicly acknowledging the need for renewal in tackling some underlying factors that contributed to UDF’s diminished popularity even in the Eastern Region, its former stronghold.
In politics, humility and adaptability are key survival skills. Politicians who listen to voters’ aspirations and respond with sincer ity often get rewarded at the ballot, while those who dismiss people’s voices live in denial and invite a rude awakening.
MCP, UTM and Umodzi Party must, therefore, learn something from Atupele’s polite move which signals political maturity and true leadership.
Others may choose t o d i s a g r e e w i t h Afrobarometer, but the truth is the think-tank offers pol i t ic ians unsol ic i ted s n a p s h o t s o f w h a t Malawians are saying before elections and ignoring it outright becomes a missed opportunity and a reckless disregard for important feedback.
In other words, parties must put their houses in order before the voting day on September 16 2025. For MCP, t h i s means tackling corruption, fixing the economy and addressing the soaring cost of living, among others. I deliberately left out how the party has fared in fulfilling its 2019/20 campa ign promises.
And despite its lead in the poll, DPP should not become too confident. It needs to convince more Malawians that it has now genuinely transformed into a different party from the one that voters kicked out of government in 2020, and has a solid plan for Malawi’s economic growth and sustainable development.
Remember arrogance and politics simply do not mix. It is suicidal. It never ends well!
