Afrobarometer poll favours DPP over Tonse
Majority of respondents in an opinion poll conducted by Afrobarometer have said they would vote for the former governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) if elections were conducted i n February this year.
The Afrobarometer survey, which measures public perceptions on governance and other issues, also found that about 80 percent of Malawians think the country is heading in the wrong direction.
The major highlight of the findings of the survey conducted between February 14 and 24 this year is that there is eroded trust in the Tonse Alliance administration voted into power in the court-sanctioned Fresh Presidential Election held on June 23 2020.
Re s p o n d i n g t o a question on which party they would vote for if elections were conducted the next day of the survey, 41.2 percent of the respondents preferred DPP while 26.4 percent were for Malawi Congress Party (MCP), the lead partner in the Tonse Alliance. MCP’s main partner UTM Party received an approval rating of 7.9 percent while People’s Party (PP), another Tonse Alliance member, got a negligible 0.4 percent.
United Democratic Front (UDF), which partnered DPP in the fresh presidential elections, got 3. 1 percent, Mbakuwaku Movement had 0.3 percent, others 0. 1 percent while 7.4 percent said they would not vote and 5.5 percent refused to answer, There was also a 7.7 percent section of undecided voters.
The report has also show that almost 90 percent of Malawians believe that the country is going in the wrong direction meaning only 10 percent believe things were well.
The rural area has the highest number of who those believe the country is going in the wrong direction at 90 percent while the urban has 79.6 percent. Further to this, the report indicates that 60 percent rate the economy as very bad.
While this survey was conducted in February, political scientist Makhumbo Munthali said in an interview on Tuesday the outcome would not be different if the survey was done now.
He said the report is a serious wake up call to Tonse Allianceand calls for soul-searching.
Munthali said: “The results would be worse because currently there more serious economic problems facing the country than the situation was in February. This is about perception and that is how people see things out there. I think what is undoing the current administration is the state of the economy. We appreciate that there is Covid-19 and Ukraine-Russia war but government must begin to work on improving the economy”.
The political scientist further said this also shows that the current internal squabbles facing the DPP have little impact on the public look at the party.
Political science lecturer and research fellow at the Centre for Social Research of the University of Malawi Joseph Chunga said the survey may have been conducted six months earlier but the results are still relevant.
He said processing of data takes time and that while in April they released part of the results on specific themes, releasing the whole report took time.
Chunga said it is also interesting that the findings demystify the popular feeling that there is a lot of blind loyalty in Malawi, saying issues happening in the country have potential to influence voting and preference.
“In fact if you look at the people who say the country is going in the wrong direction the figures include those that are Tonse Alliance sympathisers.
“So, this simply informs that it is not always true that people vote based on tribal/ regional lines but can also be influenced with issues such as economics” he said.
The Afrobarometer conducts surveys in various countries and in Malawi partners the Centre for Social Research of the University of Malawi.
