Preliminary crop production estimates show that Malawi faces another maize deficit with data indicating that 2 962 620 metric tonnes (MT) of the staple grain will be harvested against a national requirement of 3.5 million MT.
Ministry of Agriculture second round estimates for crop production show that the deficit will be 537 380MT despite the output for 2024/25 agriculture season pointing to a 9.2 percent increase over the 2023/24 final harvest of 2 712 578MT.
But agriculture experts have expressed worry over the continued decline in maize production against a background of data from the ministry showing that production has declined by 20 percent in the last five years.
Minister of Agriculture Sam Kawale has attributed the increase in projected maize harvest to a 2.4 percent growth in hectarage, bolstered by competitive maize prices and improved rainfall in most agricultural development divisions (ADDs).
Shire Valley ADD is expected to produce 117 391MT, up from 88 200MT while Kasungu ADD’s is projected at 1 055 240MT from 848 452MT and Lilongwe ADD is expected to produce 707 994MT from 614 827MT the previous season.
Said Kawale: “Despite this uptick, production is 20.3 percent below the five-year average with declines in Blantyre [-33.8 percent], Karonga, Mzuzu and Salima due to dry spells and weather disruptions. Cumulative rainfall averaged 542.5mm, lower than last season’s 606.0mm.
“Dry spells affected Karonga, Mzuzu and Salima [ADDs] while hailstorms and floods impacted Mzuzu and Machinga [ADDs]. Approximately 79 119 hectares across 141 994 households were affected, a reduction from the first round’s 978 076 hectares.”
Reacting to the development, Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources (Luanar) agriculture economist Horace Phiri predicted a volatile maize market, unless government floods the market by buying more.
In an interview, he said: “We will have a clear picture after third round estimates, but you should expect that prices of maize may go up, maybe even beyond the K2 000 per kilogramme we saw recently.
“There is talk of mega farms, but these have private interests. They can’t sell to someone in rural areas who simply wants a tin.”
On his part, agriculture policy expert Tamani Nkhono-Mvula said it was disturbing that production levels for maize were declining at a time the population is increasing and should be creating high demand for food.
“We have a production system that is not very well diversified to ensure that any failure on rain-fed production can be compensated by irrigated farming,” he said.
Nkhono-Mvula also suggested a proper audit on production systems and investments in the agriculture sector.
In a separate interview, agriculture extension specialist Leonard Chimwaza stressed the need to maximise production from mega farms.
He said this can be done through prudent selection of productive farmers, timely engagement of input suppliers and adoption of mechanisation, among others.
Reacting to the concerns, Kawale said government will continue distributing free food to vulnerable households and empowering Agricultural Development and Marketing Corporation to buy and sell maize at subsidised prices.
He said: “We are investing close to K100 billion in irrigation projects this year alone. This includes fertiliser, seeds and pest control support for farmers in irrigation schemes.”
According to the estimates, positive growth is projected for rice at 144 066MT from 136 083MT, groundnuts at 351141MT from 277 591 MT, cassava at 6 583 068MT from 5 946,214MT and sweet potatoes at 7 894 296MT from 6 962 391MT last season.
However, a decrease in production is expected on pineapples, mangoes, oranges, tangerines and cabbages.
