If general elections were held four months ago, former ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) would have gotten 43 percent of the vote, findings of non-partisan pollster Afrobarometer show.
The poll, which yesterday triggered a furore over its veracity, show Malawi Congress Party—the main grouping in the ruling Tonse Alliance—would get 29 percent of the vote, UTM would receive seven percent followed by United Democratic Front (UDF) at two percent. The rest of the parties would be left clutching one percent of the vote while 14 percent of those sampled were either undecided or refused to state their preference but four percent said they would not vote.
Essentially, the outcome means neither party would have amassed an outright majority vote with the 50 percent-plus-one system of electing the country’s President in place.
But Malawi Congress Party secretary general Richard Chimwendo Banda and UTM publicity secretary Felix Njawala dismissed the findings of the survey that dominated social media chatter yesterday, saying they did not reflect the national mood.
On the other hand, DPP spokesperson Shadric Namalomba said his party was “thrilled” and “energized” by the poll numbers.
Afrobarometer, the pan-African and non-partisan survey research network working in 42 countries, disseminated the survey’s findings in Blantyre yesterday.
The network conducted its Round 10 survey on Malawians’ perceptions on corruption and the political landscape, which included 1 200 adult respondents with margins of sampling error of +/-3 percentage points, between August 1 and 14, 2024.
Chimwendo Banda trashed the findings, arguing the timing of the survey and sample size was “very poor”.
He said from the time the survey was conducted, the political landscape has changed as the country is back on track.
“We are talking about a voting population of seven million. That cannot be determined by a sample of 1 200 people. Further, they did that survey way before registration. They should have done after registration because right now we don’t know who will vote, maybe they talked to people who will not vote,” Chimwendo Banda said.
He claimed that the DPP and Mutharika cannot be an option because Malawians no longer trust them following the plundering of the economy during their reign.
“This country is in a mess today because of the DPP. No Malawian can trust this party and its leadership anymore,” Chimwendo Banda said.
In a brief written response, UTM publicity secretary Felix Njawala said: “The report represents the status of the affairs as at that date [August 2024].”
But DPP’s Namalomba said the DPP was happy with the findings, which have “revealed exactly what the people of Malawi have been wishing for—a competent and effective leadership that can steer this country towards progress and prosperity.”
He said: “It is no secret that MCP has failed to lead this nation, and in fact, they have destroyed the functional economy that we handed over to them in June 2020.
“It is no wonder that Malawians now prefer DPP and our president Peter Mutharika, to lead them out of this suffering and it will be the second time that we have to turn around an economy that was battered by an incompetent and clueless government.”
However, he said the DPP will not be complacent with the results, considering that there are nine months before the election.
According to the findings, a majority of Malawians think the country is moving in the wrong direction with the proportion of those having that view standing at 76 percent.
For example, citizens are unsatisfied with government’s efforts in fighting corruption as only 30 percent think the administration is doing well while about 54 percent feel corruption has increased over the last 12 months.
However, political party affiliation seems to affect the perceptions as about 80 percent of those affiliated with the DPP claim government is handling corruption poorly compared with fewer than half of MCP followers.
The findings also reveal a general view that government is not doing well in its efforts to manage the economy, keep commodities’ prices stable, create jobs for citizens and narrow income gaps.
However, a majority of people approve of government’s performance in the provision of utilities such as water and sanitation and reliable electricity services.
Speaking after presenting the findings, national investigator for Afrobarometer in Malawi, who is also director of Centre for Social Research (CSR) Joseph Chunga, said the findings give an opportunity to political parties to strategise ahead of next year’s polls.
“The Afrobarometer model is to let the people have a say. When we present these results we are basically saying, scientifically, this is what Malawians are saying.
“So whatever decisions politicians will be making if they lose this touch with the people they will face the consequences,” said Chunga.
On his part, political scientist Wonderful Mkhutche said Afrobarometer was a credible survey house so the perceptions expressed by Malawians “are real and I agree with them entirely even though some may choose to dispute the findings.”
He said: “They represent the general perception or situation of our political environment. People are not satisfied with how government is running public matters and that is why you see most of those that were questioned tilting towards the opposition.”
He, however, advised political parties to use the findings as pointers to areas that need improvement.
“When we talk about elections we talk about the numbers and these findings are also dwelling on the numbers so this is an opportunity for political parties to see how best they can position themselves using these findings,” said Mkhutche.
On corruption, Mkhutche wondered why the Tonse Alliance administration was “fairing miserably” when it was actually voted on a promise that it would fight corruption.
In July this year, the Anti-Corruption Bureau (ACB) confessed that despite various interventions to aid the fight against corruption, graft continues to worsen in the country, largely facilitated by poor public service delivery which creates a fertile ground for corruption.
Former ACB director of corruption prevention Mary Phombeya revealed this to The Nation in an interview on the sidelines of the launch of the 2024 Governance and Corruption Survey.
The Afrobarometer survey findings come exactly a month after the institution also disseminated another finding on Malawians’ perception of the Judiciary, rule of law and the Office of the Vice-President which shows a decline in public trust in courts, dropping to 63 percent.
It also comes two months after another finding of Institute of Public Opinion and Research (Ipor) survey revealed that Malawians trust religious and traditional leaders more than elected ones, including the President, members of Parliament (MPs) and councillors.
