Malawi’s year-on-year headline inflation continued to ease in the first half of this year, averaging 23.6 percent compared with 28.9 percent the previous year, according to the National Statistical Office (NSO).
The NSO data further show that June inflation rate, which has dropped to 21.1 percent from 23.4 percent, makes it the lowest inflation in four years, driven largely by easing food prices following fresh harvests, particularly maize, which carries significant weight in the inflation basket.
The NSO’s June Stats Flash indicates that June inflation eased by by 2.3 percentage points as food inflation slowed, offsetting pressure from non-food categories.
“Food inflation declined to 14.7 percent in June 2026 down from 17.6 percent in May while non-food inflation moderated slightly to 32.1 percent from 33 percent,” reads the report.
Over the past six months, inflation has decelerated mainly on the back of falling maize prices though non-food inflation spiked in April after global fuel supply disruptions pushed up domestic pump prices.
In an interview on Wednesday, Reserve Bank of Malawi (RBM) spokesperson Boston Maliketi Banda described the decline in inflation as “inspiring” and pledged the central bank’s commitment to sustain the momentum.
He said: “This development is encouraging indeed. We observe that the slowing down in inflation has largely been influenced by declining food prices.
“We see this disinflation process being sustained should food prices continue decreasing as expected.”
RBM Deputy Governor for operations Kisu Simwaka, writing on his Facebook page, argued that single-digit inflation is achievable with effective policy coordination between the central bank and government.
“Malawi’s inflation problem has a solution. The economy is not an outlier. Other countries in the region have shown that single digit can be achieved and sustained,” he wrote.
Simwaka said inflation is not controlled by a single instrument, observing that it requires a central bank that is operationally independent in its mandate, a government that exercises fiscal discipline, foreign exchange buffers that are adequate, less dependence on imports and policy credibility.
“If we put this system in place, five percent inflation by 2030 is not an aspiration. It will be an outcome,” he said.
University of Malawi economics lecturer Edward Leman said in an interview that future inflation trends will hinge on domestic food supply, though global fuel prices and exchange rate stability remain critical.
“There are reasons for cautious optimism. Malawi’s inflation is predominantly food-driven and a favourable agricultural season could help ease pressures, potentially bringing the annual average slightly below last year’s 28.4 percent,” he said.
In its 2026 Monetary Policy Report, RBM projected annual inflation rate at 24.8 percent, down from 28.4 percent in 2025, citing persistent risks that could offset easing food prices.
Maize, the country’s staple crop, remains central to the economy, accounting for about 53 percent of the Consumer Price Index, the aggregate basket of goods and services used to compute inflation.
Malawi’s inflation easing contrasts sharply with trends in neighbouring countries where rates remain much lower, with Mozambique’s inflation rate for June recorded at 7.5 percent, Tanzania at four percent, Zimbabwe at 4.7 percent and Zambia at 6.5 percent.
This regional context underscores Malawi’s continued struggle with food-driven price pressures despite recent declines.
