Malawi’s trade deficit surged in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026, widening by 18.5 percent to $789 million (about K1.3 trillion) from $642.7 million (about K1.12 trillion) a year earlier as exports slipped by 9.1 percent.
National Statistical Office (NSO) data show that Malawi exported goods valued at $172 million (about K301 billion) between January and March 2026 down from $189.3 million (K331 billion) in 2025, with tobacco leading the pack.
During the same period, the country imported goods worth $961 million (K1.6 trillion) from $832 million (K1.4 trillion), with diesel being the top import commodity.
Reads part of the NSO report: “The export to import ratio was 0.18 percent, indicating that exports were equivalent to 18 percent of the import value in March 2026.”
The report further shows that top 10 imports during the review period amounted to $176.8 million (about K310 billion) led by diesel at $27.6 million (about K48 billion), boilers and machinery at $22.1 million (about K39 billion) and plastics at $20.6 million (about K36 billion).
On the other hand, exports brought in $44.1 million (about K77 billion) in foreign exchange led by tobacco at $29.4 million (about K51 billion), tea at $7.2 million (about K13 billion) and macadamia nuts at $3.2 million (about K6 billion).
In an interview yesterday, economists contend that the worsening trade deficit reflects Malawi’s continued over-reliance on few export commodities, persistent underproduction and weak participation in international markets.
University of Malawi macroeconomics lecturer Edward Leman, in an interview, said for decades, Malawi has heavily relied on tobacco as its main source of export revenue with limited and inconsistent efforts towards diversification.
He said value addition has remained largely rhetorical with little tangible progress.
Said Leman: “As a result, national competitiveness remains fragile and the country is steadily losing comparative advantage in traditional exports such as tea.
“Compounding this challenge is the fact that domestic production increasingly fails to meet local demand, forcing higher levels of importation.”
In a separate interview, Mzuzu University economics lecturer Christopher Mbukwa said the widening trade deficit is a sign of both structural and transactional weaknesses in the economy.
“The rise in this deficit can be attributed to transactions that were done in kwacha this year as opposed to the traditional dollar transactions over the years,” he said.
Over the years, trade deficits have continued to rise despite Malawi implementing the National Export Strategy II, which sought to diversify exports, move away from reliance on raw tobacco and increase the value of locally manufactured goods.
Imports also continued to surge a year after the Malawi Government imposed an import ban on maize flour, fresh milk, rice and fruits, except those that do not grow in Malawi from April 2025.
Malawi’s trade deficit widened by 15 percent in 2025 to $2.67 billion (about K4.6 trillion) from $2.2 billion (about K3.8 trillion) the previous year driven by a surge in imports and a decline in exports, according to NSO data.
